Winter Olympics: Game, Feb 18, 2026

Wed, Feb 18GameHistory onlyWinter Olympics

Updated

Markets

16 words · 6 settled yes

backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.

Listed words: result, and the probability (a walk-forward backtest on settled rows)
WordResultProbabilityMarket
Goofy Yes71%n=2 from settlement history–
450 Yes–new new word, no probability yet–
Pretzel Yes–new new word, no probability yet–
Tweak / Tweaks / Tweaked Yes–new new word, no probability yet–
Powder Yes44%n=3 from settlement history–
Big Air Yes–n=1 too little history for a probability–
1620 No71%n=2 from settlement history–
Halfpipe No71%n=2 from settlement history–
Stalefish No–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Goggle No60%n=3 from settlement history–
X Games No60%n=3 from settlement history–
1440 No–new new word, no probability yet–
Backflip / Backflips / Backflipped No–new new word, no probability yet–
Hardway No–new new word, no probability yet–
Record No53%n=2 from settlement history–
Red Bull No29%n=3 from settlement history–

Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.

Transcript

History only. Sports broadcasts are tracked by their settled markets; there is no transcript for games.

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXWOMENTION-26FEB18 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP