Kelly Ortberg: Keynote, Sep 16, 2026
Boeing at Morgan Stanley Laguna Conference
At the keynote on Sep 16, 2026, Kelly Ortberg said 7 of the 14 words Kalshi listed.
UpdatedMarkets
14 words · 7 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery / Delivered | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 38%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Air Force One | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Defense | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| FAA | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Supply Chain | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Wide-body / Wide Body / 787 | Yes | 28%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| NASA | No | 52%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Space | No | 52%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Starliner | No | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Middle East | No | 38%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| F-47 | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Airbus | No | 28%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 28%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
No public transcript expected. Boeing webcast at an investor conference (investor relations, usually behind registration). The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/kelly-ortberg:2026-09-16:keynote · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=kelly-ortberg:2026-09-16:keynote · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP