Robinhood (HOOD): FY25 Q4 earnings call, Feb 10, 2026
On its Feb 10, 2026 earnings call (FY25 Q4), Robinhood said 17 of the 19 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 19 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
19 words · 17 settled yes · our count agreed on 19 of 19- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi - Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction | Yes | 35 | 35 | ✓ | 90%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Prediction Market | Yes | 28 | 35 | ✓ | 89%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence 3+ times | Yes | 22 | 22 | ✓ | 52%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Billion 10+ times | Yes | 21 | 21 | ✓ | 76%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| International | Yes | 12 | 15 | ✓ | 84%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Gold | Yes | 10 | 10 | ✓ | 96%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Tokenization | Yes | 10 | 14 | ✓ | 86%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Token | Yes | 9 | 9 | ✓ | 85%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Social | Yes | 8 | 8 | ✓ | 75%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Retirement | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 87%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Acquisition | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 82%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Credit Card | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 85%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Summit | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 80%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Blockchain | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 67%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Bitcoin | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 40%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Perp / Perpetual | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 29%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| SIG / Susquehanna | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 18%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Indonesia | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 18%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Silver | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 18%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
35 matches for “Prediction”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…big priority for us, and we are seeing big results. In Q4, prediction market volumes doubled, more than doubled yet again, with over 12 billion…
…of these investments include the Robinhood Gold Card, Robinhood Banking, strategies, prediction markets, Cortex, Robinhood Social, Robinhood Ventures, the Robinhood Chain, tokenized real-world…
…to focus on areas that are particularly meaningful. And maybe surprising. So prediction markets. Fastest growing business in our history. $300 million plus run rate…
…our Rothera, which is our JV with Susquehanna coming online. Growth of prediction markets has also led to a greater focus on our app design…
…this accelerate. With more personalization, better cross-asset linking between equities, crypto, and prediction markets, and us continuing to experiment to ensure that our user experience…
Where the listed words were said
…We are going through internal and we actually just added support for prediction markets into Robinhood Social, and it's looking really good. As we progress…
…soon. And now we think private markets could become even bigger than prediction markets. And I'm really excited about what we are building here. Finally,…
…Q&A, I want to share a little more about our progress with AI. So I went in earlier about Cortex, what we are doing to…
…tools to navigate the markets, and we see them responding. Over 11 billion of equity notional volume in the first couple of months since shorting…
…to look back, and we will really have underestimated how big our international business can be. Now taking all of this together, our relentless product…
…to see customers trusting us with more of their financial lives. Robinhood Gold Card, up over five times in 2025 to 600,000 customers. It's reached…
…in Europe. Now a big part of 2026 will be seizing the tokenization opportunity, which we think is massive. And this means two things. Very…
…rails. So we don't have traditional stocks there, but we have stock tokens. So that's where we are really pushing hard on tokenization. And I…
Good. Good to see you. So my question is, any additional updates on Robinhood Social?
…so that we can easily cross-sell you to, you know, things like retirement or other products. I think that's an area where we have a…
…three percentage points are from the full-year cost effect of our 2025 acquisitions of Bitstamp and TradePMR. Now these expenses will also come with a…
…driven by strong growth in the cash sweep program, margin, and our credit card loan book. As we continue to win larger customers and deepen…
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