Will Jensen Huang say “Open Source”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Jensen Huang said “Open Source” at 3 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 29, 2025 (75%), most recently on Mar 16, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 56% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 keynotes we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – May 10, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3. 1 later keynote without a transcript yet (Oct 21, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 3/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearanceJensen Huang
Open Source
- Probability
- 56% · n=4
- Settled
- 3/4 (75%)
- Last 5 keynotes
- said in 3 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: anyone
10 counted.
…intelligence today. Thousands of tools and compilers and frameworks and libraries in open source. There's a couple of hundred thousand public projects. CUDA literally is…
…as a group, this represents one third of the world's AI compute. open source models. Open source models have reached near the frontier and it…
Counts: named speaker only
6 counted.
…We can now know that AI is going to proliferate everywhere when open source, when open innovation, when innovation across every single company and every…
…work that we've been doing in self-driving cars. Not only do we open source the models, we also open source the data that we used…
Counts: named speaker only
12 counted.
…these incredible ecosystem of partners working with us. Let's talk about models. Open source models particularly in the last couple years. Several things have happened.…
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Open Source | No | 0 | |
| Mar 17, 2026 | Open Source | Yes | 10 | |
| Jan 6, 2026 | Open Source | Yes | 6 | |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Open Source | Yes | 12 |
Questions
- How often does Jensen Huang say “Open Source”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Jensen Huang said “Open Source” at 3 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 29, 2025 (75%), most recently on Mar 16, 2026.
- What is the probability Jensen Huang says “Open Source” next time?
- 56%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Jensen Huang: ‘Open Source’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/jensen-huang/words/open-source (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jensen-huang&word=open%20source · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jensen-huang&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP