Will Jensen Huang say “Elon / Musk”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, Jensen Huang said “Elon / Musk” at 2 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 29, 2025 (40%), most recently on Jan 5, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 29% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 keynotes we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – May 10, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2. 1 later keynote without a transcript yet (Oct 21, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 2/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearanceJensen Huang
Elon / Musk
- Probability
- 29% · n=5
- Settled
- 2/5 (40%)
- Last 5 keynotes
- said in 2 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
1 counted.
…us to build the next frontier model. The next frontier model uh Elon's already mentioned that the next version of Grok, Grok 5, I think…
Counts: named speaker only
1 counted.
It is very likely that humanoid robots and uh my friend Elon is also working on this that this is likely going to be one…
Every settled listing
newest first · 6 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Elon / Musk | No | 0 | |
| Mar 17, 2026 | Elon / Musk | No | 0 | |
| Jan 22, 2026 | Elon / Musk | No | 0 | |
| Jan 6, 2026 | Elon / Musk | Yes | 1 | |
| Jan 5, 2026 | Elon / Musk | Yes | 1 | |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Elon / Musk | Yes | 1 |
Questions
- How often does Jensen Huang say “Elon / Musk”?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, Jensen Huang said “Elon / Musk” at 2 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 29, 2025 (40%), most recently on Jan 5, 2026.
- What is the probability Jensen Huang says “Elon / Musk” next time?
- 29%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Jensen Huang: ‘Elon / Musk’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/jensen-huang/words/elon-or-musk (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jensen-huang&word=elon%20%2F%20musk · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jensen-huang&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP