Micron Q4 FY2026 post-earnings analyst call, Sep 30, 2026
On Sep 30, 2026, Micron said 5 of the 16 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 16 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
16 words · 5 settled yes · our count agreed on 16 of 16- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HBM4E | Yes | 6 | 9 | ✓ | 71%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Agentic | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | 53%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Nvidia | Yes | 3 | 4 | ✓ | 73%n=4+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 2 | 5 | ✓ | 41%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Idaho | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 82%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Data Center 3+ times | No | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 89%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Smartphone 3+ times | No | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 56%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Portfolio | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 95%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Inventory | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 70%n=4+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Hyperscaler | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 44%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Inference | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 43%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| New York | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 42%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Tariff | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 27%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Taiwan | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 20%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Research Lab | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 14%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Anthropic | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 11%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Nov 11, 2026 07:32 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
Where the listed words were said
Sure. Melissa, I'll take the first, then maybe Scott can take the HBM4E since he is driving that product development. In terms of the HBM…
…grow into 2027, and of course, I think everybody's talking about how agentic AI is really growing fast, and that's creating a CPU-driven demand stream…
Then I can just add a little bit about the work with NVIDIA on what really will be the first major custom HBM product out…
On the first question, yes, our exposure to China has been reducing over the last couple of years and the last several quarters. We expect…
…though we are going to be having first wafer output from our Idaho facility mid-calendar 2027, and others in the industry as well may be…
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