Progressive (PGR): FY26 Q2 earnings call, Aug 4, 2026
On its Aug 4, 2026 earnings call (FY26 Q2), Progressive said 5 of the 12 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 12 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each, with timed clips.
UpdatedMarkets
12 words · 5 settled yes · our count agreed on 12 of 12- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Clip | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 13 | 14 | ✓ | 80%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 1:06:38, AI / Artificial Intelligence | – |
| M&A / Acquisition | Yes | 6 | 7 | ✓ | 89%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 35:05, M&A / Acquisition | – |
| Inflation | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 83%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 1:22:13, Inflation | – |
| Snapshot | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 34%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 54:00, Snapshot | – |
| Catastrophe | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 34%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 15:06, Catastrophe | – |
| Headwind | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 63%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Buyback | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 60%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Pet Insurance | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 24%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Iran / Middle East | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 15%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| Open the House | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 15%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| Hippo | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 12%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Rosella | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 12%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
8 matches for “Captive”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…opportunity becomes even clearer. Today, the U.S. auto market is about 37% captive or exclusive agent, about 31% independent agent, and about 32% in the…
…Robinsons. 85% of Robinsons Auto premiums are sold through agents, roughly 2/3 captive, 1/3 independent agent. Given our auto leadership in the IA channel and…
…national agency partners, and creating a more efficient appointment process for former captive agents. Growth is being rebuilt deliberately based on stronger business health and…
…see a second important shift within the channel. Premium is moving from captive to independent agents, which matters because captive carriers have historically held a…
…Especially, I think we share sort of the trending going from more captive agents to independent agents. Our model's always been around choice, we think…
Where the listed words were said
…ease of use. They include chatbots and of course we've had predictive AI in our world for some time now as well on, say like…
…to satisfy more household insurance needs, and partner carriers benefit from our acquisition engine. HQX also meaningfully contributes to our Robinson growth. The model combines…
…well. We want to take small bites. I think historically, especially with inflation when it went up in 2023, we've had to take such large…
…product enhancements, and distribution improvements. In auto, we continue to expand new Snapshot and non-UBI product models, which leads for us to even greater accuracy…
…ratio, which is a superior result. While 2025 benefited from a mild catastrophe season and favorable prior year development, underlying profitability was in line with…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/progressive:2026-08-04:earnings_call · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=progressive:2026-08-04:earnings_call · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP