Will Amazon say “Tariff”?
Amazon said “Tariff” 7 times on its Jul 30, 2026 call (FY26 Q2), and on 6 of its last 8 calls: 0, 0, 15, 9, 1, 1, 1, 7 times. As of Oct 24, 2026, Amazon said “Tariff” on 5 of 5 calls with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jul 31, 2025 (100%), most recently on Jul 30, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 84% (n=5, from settlement history blended with transcripts), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 5/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 5 times
- Counts
- company speakers + operator
- Market
- 95¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Amazon
Tariff
- Probability
- 84% · n=5
- Settled
- 5/5 (100%)
- Last calls
- said in 6 of 8
Next listing counts: company speakers + operator
Counts: company speakers + operator
7 counted (7 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A).
…exchange rates and energy prices, changes in global economic and geopolitical conditions, tariff and trade policies, resource and supply volatility, including for memory chips, and…
…reduced expenses by approximately $1.2 billion during the quarter. First, we received tariff-related refunds of approximately $600 million. This is included in our North America…
Counts: company speakers + operator
1 counted (1 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A).
…exchange rates and energy prices, changes in global economic and geopolitical conditions, tariff and trade policies, resource and supply volatility, including for memory chips and…
Counts: company speakers + operator
1 counted (1 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A).
…exchange rates and energy prices, changes in global economic and geopolitical conditions, tariff and trade policies, resource and supply volatility, including for memory chips, and…
Every settled listing
newest first · 8 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2026 | Tariff |  Polymarket | Yes | 7 |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Tariff |  Kalshi | Yes | 7 |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Tariff | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Tariff | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Tariff | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Tariff | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Jul 31, 2025 | Tariff | Polymarket | Yes | 11 |
| Jul 31, 2025 | Tariff | Kalshi | Yes | 9 |
Questions
- How many times did Amazon say “Tariff” on its last earnings call?
- Amazon said “Tariff” 7 times on its Jul 30, 2026 call (FY26 Q2), and on 6 of its last 8 calls: 0, 0, 15, 9, 1, 1, 1, 7 times.
- How often does Amazon say “Tariff”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Amazon said “Tariff” on 5 of 5 calls with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jul 31, 2025 (100%), most recently on Jul 30, 2026.
- What is the probability Amazon says “Tariff” next time?
- 84%, from settlement history blended with transcripts (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: company speakers + operator.
Cite parrot.markets, “Amazon: ‘Tariff’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/earnings/AMZN/words/tariff (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=amazon&word=tariff · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=amazon&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP