Will Ulta say “Uncertainty”?
Ulta said “Uncertainty” 4 times on its Aug 27, 2026 call (FY27 Q2), and on each of its last 8 calls: 1, 2, 9, 4, 2, 3, 5, 4 times. As of Oct 24, 2026, Ulta said “Uncertainty” on 4 of 4 calls with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 4, 2025 (100%), most recently on Aug 27, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 91% (n=4, from settlement history blended with transcripts), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 4/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 4 times
- Counts
- company speakers + operator
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Ulta
Uncertainty
- Probability
- 91% · n=4
- Settled
- 4/4 (100%)
- Last calls
- said in 8 of 8
Next listing counts: company speakers + operator
Counts: company speakers + operator
4 counted (3 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A).
…this call include forward-looking statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially from our expectations…
…influence purchase decisions, and consumers are being choiceful as they navigate macro uncertainty and higher everyday expenses, including elevated fuel costs. Against this backdrop, we…
Counts: company speakers + operator
5 counted (4 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A).
…this call include forward-looking statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially from our expectations…
…engagement is strong. At the same time, consumers continue to face macroeconomic uncertainty and inflationary measures and pressures from rising fuel prices, making value increasingly…
Counts: company speakers + operator
3 counted (3 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A).
…this call include forward-looking statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially from our expectations…
Every settled listing
newest first · 6 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 27, 2026 | Uncertainty |  Polymarket | Yes | 4 |
| Aug 27, 2026 | Uncertainty |  Kalshi | Yes | 4 |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Uncertainty | Kalshi | Yes | 5 |
| Mar 12, 2026 | Uncertainty | Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
| Dec 4, 2025 | Uncertainty | Polymarket | Yes | 2 |
| Dec 4, 2025 | Uncertainty | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
Questions
- How many times did Ulta say “Uncertainty” on its last earnings call?
- Ulta said “Uncertainty” 4 times on its Aug 27, 2026 call (FY27 Q2), and on each of its last 8 calls: 1, 2, 9, 4, 2, 3, 5, 4 times.
- How often does Ulta say “Uncertainty”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Ulta said “Uncertainty” on 4 of 4 calls with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 4, 2025 (100%), most recently on Aug 27, 2026.
- What is the probability Ulta says “Uncertainty” next time?
- 91%, from settlement history blended with transcripts (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: company speakers + operator.
Cite parrot.markets, “Ulta: ‘Uncertainty’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/earnings/ULTA/words/uncertainty (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=ulta&word=uncertainty · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=ulta&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP