Will Microsoft say “Fairwater”?

Microsoft did not say “Fairwater” on its Jul 29, 2026 call (FY26 Q4); it said it on 3 of its last 8 calls: 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 2, 1, 0 times. As of Oct 24, 2026, Microsoft said “Fairwater” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Apr 29, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 55% (n=1, from settlement history blended with transcripts), not a forecast.

55%from settlement history blended with transcripts · n=1counts: company speakers + operator
Last 10
1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
Streak
said last time
Counts
company speakers + operator
Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Microsoft

Fairwater

Probability
55% · n=1
Settled
1/1 (100%)
Last calls
said in 3 of 8

Next listing counts: company speakers + operator

FY26 Q4 earnings call, Jul 29, 2026 · not said

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FY26 Q3 earnings call, Apr 29, 2026 · said 1 time (counts)

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Counts: company speakers + operator

1 counted (1 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A).

Satya NadellacompanypreparedIn transcript

…biggest regions by nearly 20% since the beginning of the year. Our Fairwater data center in Wisconsin came online earlier this month, six weeks ahead…

FY26 Q2 earnings call, Jan 28, 2026 · said 2 times (counts)

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Counts: company speakers + operator (not listed here; the usual rule)

2 counted (2 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A); 2 by speakers the rule does not count.

Satya NadellacompanypreparedIn transcript

…another example was the unlocking of new capabilities and efficiencies for our Fairwater data centers. In this instance, we connect both Atlanta and Wisconsin sites…

Karl KeirsteadanalystqaIn transcript

…accelerating. But I think a lot of investors have their eyes on Fairwater Atlanta, Fairwater, Wisconsin, and would love some comments about the magnitude of…

Not counted under the usual rule (company speakers + operator); this word was not listed here.

Every match in the transcript

FY26 Q1 earnings call, Oct 29, 2025 · said 1 time (counts)

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Counts: company speakers + operator (not listed here; the usual rule)

1 counted (1 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A).

Satya NadellacompanypreparedIn transcript

…Just this quarter, we announced the world's most powerful AI data center, Fairwater in Wisconsin, which will go online next year and scale to 2…

FY25 Q4 earnings call, Jul 30, 2025 · not said

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FY25 Q3 earnings call, Apr 30, 2025 · not said

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FY25 Q2 earnings call, Jan 29, 2025 · not said

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FY25 Q1 earnings call, Oct 30, 2024 · not said

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Every settled listing

newest first · 1 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Apr 29, 2026FairwaterKalshiYes1

Questions

How many times did Microsoft say “Fairwater” on its last earnings call?
Microsoft did not say “Fairwater” on its Jul 29, 2026 call (FY26 Q4); it said it on 3 of its last 8 calls: 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 2, 1, 0 times.
How often does Microsoft say “Fairwater”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Microsoft said “Fairwater” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Apr 29, 2026.
What is the probability Microsoft says “Fairwater” next time?
55%, from settlement history blended with transcripts (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: company speakers + operator.

Cite parrot.markets, “Microsoft: ‘Fairwater’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/earnings/MSFT/words/fairwater (CC BY 4.0)

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