Will John Deere say “Tariff”?
John Deere said “Tariff” 15 times on its Aug 20, 2026 call (FY26 Q3), and on 7 of its last 8 calls: 0, 5, 27, 27, 24, 20, 42, 15 times. As of Oct 23, 2026, John Deere said “Tariff” on 4 of 4 calls with a settled Kalshi mention market since Nov 26, 2025 (100%), most recently on Aug 20, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 97% (n=4, from settlement history blended with transcripts), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 4/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 4 times
- Counts
- company speakers + operator
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
John Deere
Tariff
- Probability
- 97% · n=4
- Settled
- 4/4 (100%)
- Last calls
- said in 7 of 8
Next listing counts: company speakers + operator
Counts: company speakers + operator
15 counted (5 in prepared remarks, 10 in Q&A); 5 by speakers the rule does not count.
…consensus expectations for both revenue and profitability. The quarter also included multiple tariff-related developments. We recognized $110 million of incremental refunds in Q3, slightly above…
…beyond refunds, following the changes to the Section 122, 232, and 301 tariff policies, we now expect direct tariff expense of approximately $1.1 billion for…
Counts: company speakers + operator
42 counted (20 in prepared remarks, 22 in Q&A); 4 by speakers the rule does not count.
…quarterly results also benefited from recording a recovery for refund claims relating to IEEPA tariffs, which we'll discuss in more detail later in the call.
…a similar point in the cycle, despite the headwind that comes from tariffs. This enables us to sustain record investment across cycles to make these…
Counts: company speakers + operator
20 counted (7 in prepared remarks, 13 in Q&A); 3 by speakers the rule does not count.
…margin for the segment. The year-over-year decrease was primarily due to higher tariffs, unfavorable sales mix and higher warranty expenses. Moving on to Small Ag…
Every settled listing
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KalshiQuestions
- How many times did John Deere say “Tariff” on its last earnings call?
- John Deere said “Tariff” 15 times on its Aug 20, 2026 call (FY26 Q3), and on 7 of its last 8 calls: 0, 5, 27, 27, 24, 20, 42, 15 times.
- How often does John Deere say “Tariff”?
- As of Oct 23, 2026, John Deere said “Tariff” on 4 of 4 calls with a settled Kalshi mention market since Nov 26, 2025 (100%), most recently on Aug 20, 2026.
- What is the probability John Deere says “Tariff” next time?
- 97%, from settlement history blended with transcripts (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: company speakers + operator.
Cite parrot.markets, “John Deere: ‘Tariff’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/earnings/DE/words/tariff (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=john-deere&word=tariff · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=john-deere&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP