# Not financial advice

as_of: 2026-10-20

Not financial advice. Rates and probabilities are base rates from history, not forecasts.

- **Data, not recommendations.** Nothing on Parrot tells you to buy, sell or hold anything.
- **History is not a forecast.** A rate says how often something happened before. Speakers change their words, venues change their lists, and small samples mislead. Every rate is shown with its sample size for that reason.
- **Markets are often sharper.** In our own tests, market prices close to the event already contained what word history knows.
- **Data can be wrong or late.** We publish our measured accuracy and every known mismatch on [Accuracy](/accuracy). Venues settle their own markets; their result stands.
- **No trading here.** Parrot offers no trading. Venue availability depends on where you live.
- **Conflicts.** People who run Parrot trade on Kalshi and Polymarket, including mention markets. See [Disclosure](/disclosure).