Will AMD say “Export restriction”?
AMD did not say “Export restriction” on its Aug 4, 2026 call (FY26 Q2); it said it on 1 of its last 8 calls: 0, 0, 0, 2, 0, 0, 0, 0 times. As of Oct 24, 2026, AMD said “Export restriction” on the only call with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Aug 5, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 26% (n=1, from settlement history blended with transcripts), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- company speakers + operator
- Market
- 46¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
AMD
Export restriction
- Probability
- 26% · n=1
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last calls
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: company speakers + operator
Counts: company speakers + operator
2 counted (2 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A).
…Turning to our Data Center AI business. Revenue declined year-over-year as U.S. export restrictions effectively eliminated MI308 sales to China, and we began transitioning to…
…due to the $800 million inventory and related charges associated with the export restrictions. Excluding this charge, non-GAAP gross margin would have been approximately 54%.…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2025 | Export restriction |  Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
Questions
- How many times did AMD say “Export restriction” on its last earnings call?
- AMD did not say “Export restriction” on its Aug 4, 2026 call (FY26 Q2); it said it on 1 of its last 8 calls: 0, 0, 0, 2, 0, 0, 0, 0 times.
- How often does AMD say “Export restriction”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, AMD said “Export restriction” on the only call with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Aug 5, 2025.
- What is the probability AMD says “Export restriction” next time?
- 26%, from settlement history blended with transcripts (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: company speakers + operator.
Cite parrot.markets, “AMD: ‘Export restriction’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/earnings/AMD/words/export-restriction (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=amd&word=export%20restriction · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=amd&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP