Will AMD say “China”?
AMD said “China” 1 time on its Aug 4, 2026 call (FY26 Q2), and on 7 of its last 8 calls: 2, 0, 6, 7, 2, 10, 6, 1 times. As of Oct 23, 2026, AMD said “China” on 2 of 2 calls with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 6, 2025 (100%), most recently on Aug 4, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 90% (n=2, from settlement history blended with transcripts), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 2/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- company speakers + operator
- Market
- 70¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
AMD
China
- Probability
- 90% · n=2
- Settled
- 2/2 (100%)
- Last calls
- said in 7 of 8
Next listing counts: company speakers + operator
Counts: company speakers + operator
1 counted (1 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A).
…related charges associated with US export control restrictions on MI308 shipments to China. Unless otherwise noted, comments making year-over-year comparisons exclude the impact of those…
Counts: company speakers + operator (not listed here; the usual rule)
6 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 6 in Q&A); 4 by speakers the rule does not count.
…remarks. The data center AI was actually down modestly because of the China transition. We had more China revenue sequentially, more China revenue in Q4,…
…center AI was down modest base up sequentially, primarily due to lower China revenue in the quarter. I think on your second question regarding Q2,…
Counts: company speakers + operator (not listed here; the usual rule)
10 counted (4 in prepared remarks, 6 in Q&A); 2 by speakers the rule does not count.
…shipments. We also had some revenue from MI308 sales to customers in China. Instinct adoption broadened in the quarter. Today, eight of the top 10…
…gaming segments. Including approximately $390 million in revenue from MI308 sales to China, which was not included in our fourth quarter guidance. Revenue was up…
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown
Polymarket
KalshiQuestions
- How many times did AMD say “China” on its last earnings call?
- AMD said “China” 1 time on its Aug 4, 2026 call (FY26 Q2), and on 7 of its last 8 calls: 2, 0, 6, 7, 2, 10, 6, 1 times.
- How often does AMD say “China”?
- As of Oct 23, 2026, AMD said “China” on 2 of 2 calls with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 6, 2025 (100%), most recently on Aug 4, 2026.
- What is the probability AMD says “China” next time?
- 90%, from settlement history blended with transcripts (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: company speakers + operator.
Cite parrot.markets, “AMD: ‘China’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/earnings/AMD/words/china (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=amd&word=china · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=amd&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP