# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_week by 2025-09-21 (settled) · 13 words · P p:what-will-trump-say-this-week-september-15-21 · as_of 2026-10-25T23:28:25Z
# scope P named · n/y settled before 2025-09-21 · tn/th blank: no transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v P · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules P p:what-will-trump-say-this-week-september-15-21 (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between September 15, 2025, 12:00 AM ET and September 21, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
# coverage no known appearances yet (as of 2026-10-20T23:46:28Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	cnt	cnt_all	res	lower_bound
Transgender	transgender	22	11	0.5	nnYYYYnYnn	0.65	hist	0	0	yes	1
Stupid person	stupid person	2	1	0.5	nY	0.5	hist	0	0	yes	1
President Xi	president xi	8	5	0.62	YYYYYnnn	0.49	hist	0	0	yes	1
Qatar	qatar	4	1	0.25	nnYn	0.45	hist	0	0	yes	1
Golf	golf	6	1	0.17	Ynnnnn	0.43	hist	0	0	no	1
Supreme Court	supreme court	4	0	0	nnnn	0.4	hist	0	0	yes	1
Nazi / Nazist	nazi|nazist	0	0			0.4	hist	0	0	no	1
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	123	5	0.04	nnnnnnnnnn	0.19	hist	0	0	no	1
Elizabeth	elizabeth	0	0			0.49	prior	0	0	yes	1
Embarrassing	embarrassing	0	0			0.49	prior	0	0	yes	1
Fat	fat	0	0			0.49	prior	0	0	yes	1
Windmill	windmill	0	0			0.49	prior	0	0	yes	1
Young people don't die	young people don't die	0	0			0.49	prior	0	0	yes	1