# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_week by 2025-08-24 (settled) · 8 words · P p:what-will-trump-say-this-week-august-18-24 · as_of 2026-10-26T03:38:05Z
# scope P named · n/y settled before 2025-08-24 · tn/th blank: no transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v P · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules P p:what-will-trump-say-this-week-august-18-24 (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between August 18, 2025, 12:00 AM ET and August 24, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
# coverage no known appearances yet (as of 2026-10-20T23:46:28Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	cnt	cnt_all	res	lower_bound
Transgender	transgender	15	7	0.47	nYnnnYnnnY	0.56	hist	0	0	yes	1
Kamala	kamala	10	5	0.5	nnYnnYYYnY	0.52	hist	0	0	yes	1
Doug / Burgum	burgum|doug	1	1	1	Y	0.49	hist	0	0	yes	1
Dictator	dictator	3	0	0	nnn	0.44	hist	0	0	yes	1
Nobel / Prize	nobel|prize	0	0			0.42	hist	0	0	no	1
Stupid person	stupid person	1	0	0	n	0.39	hist	0	0	yes	1
Peanut	peanut	5	0	0	nnnnn	0.25	hist	0	0	no	1
Blackwell	blackwell	0	0			0.48	prior	0	0	no	1