# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_week by 2026-08-23 (settled) · 17 words · P p:what-will-trump-say-this-week-august-17-august-23 · as_of 2026-10-26T00:26:26Z
# scope P named · n/y settled before 2026-08-23 · tn/th last 8 transcripts of any kind 2026-08-11..2026-08-21 · same on every row: thr 1, v P, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules P p:what-will-trump-say-this-week-august-17-august-23 (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
# coverage 5 of 6 known appearances transcribed (as of 2026-10-22T14:43:12Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	cnt	cnt_all	res	agree	lower_bound
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	152	94	0.62	nnnnnYYYnn	8	1	0.72	0	0	no		1
Transgender	transgender	208	112	0.54	nnnYYYYnnY	8	2	0.7	7	7	yes	1	
Through The Roof	through the roof	12	7	0.58	YnnnYnYYYn	8	1	0.63	1	1	yes	1	
Pearl Harbor	pearl harbor	5	2	0.4	nnnYY	8	2	0.63	1	1	yes	1	
Mental Institution / Mental Institute	mental institute|mental institution	1	1	1	Y	8	2	0.59	1	1	yes	1	
God	god	9	5	0.56	YYnnnnYYY	8	3	0.57	4	4	yes	1	
Ballroom	ballroom	103	41	0.4	YYYYYnnnnY	8	4	0.53	23	30	yes	1	
Assassin / Assassination	assassin|assassination	0	0			8	0	0.51	0	0	no		1
Weather / Rain	rain|weather	0	0			8	1	0.47	5	5	yes	1	
Alaska	alaska	8	3	0.38	YnnYnYnn	8	2	0.46	3	3	yes	1	
Who Are You	who are you	3	1	0.33	nYn	8	1	0.46	1	1	yes	1	
Prediction Market	prediction market	1	0	0	n	8	1	0.44	2	3	yes	1	
No No No	no no no	28	10	0.36	nnnnnnnYYn	8	1	0.43	0	0	no		1
Japan	japan	14	6	0.43	YYYnYnnnnn	8	1	0.42	1	1	yes	1	
Uber	uber	3	1	0.33	Ynn	8	0	0.41	0	0	no		1
Six Seven	six seven	61	17	0.28	nnnnnYnnnY	8	1	0.41	1	1	yes	1	
America First	america first	74	25	0.34	nnnnYnnYnY	8	2	0.33	2	2	yes	1