# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_month by 2026-03-31 (settled) · 32 words · P p:what-will-trump-say-in-march · as_of 2026-10-26T22:55:28Z
# scope P named · n/y settled before 2026-03-31 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v P · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules P p:what-will-trump-say-in-march (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
# coverage no known appearances yet (as of 2026-10-20T23:46:29Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	cnt	cnt_all	res	lower_bound
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	53	36	0.68	nYYYYYYYYn	1	0	0.69	hist	0	0	yes	1
Charlie Kirk	charlie kirk	2	2	1	YY	1	0	0.59	hist	0	0	no	1
Midnight Hammer	midnight hammer	12	8	0.67	nYYYYYYYnn	1	1	0.56	hist	0	0	yes	1
Drill Baby Drill	drill baby drill	59	35	0.59	YYYYYnnYYn	1	0	0.54	hist	0	0	yes	1
Escalator	escalator	0	0			1	0	0.54	hist	0	0	yes	1
Debate	debate	8	5	0.62	YYYnYnYn	1	1	0.5	hist	0	0	yes	1
Snake	snake	1	0	0	n	1	0	0.5	hist	0	0	yes	1
Data Center	data center	1	0	0	n	1	0	0.48	hist	0	0	yes	1
Third term	third term	6	2	0.33	YnnnnY	1	0	0.46	hist	0	0	no	1
Bitcoin	bitcoin	14	3	0.21	nnYnnnnYYn	1	0	0.46	hist	0	0	yes	1
Capital of the World	capital of the world	1	0	0	n	1	0	0.46	hist	0	0	no	1
Little Rocket Man	little rocket man	1	0	0	n	1	0	0.46	hist	0	0	no	1
China Virus / Wuhan Lab	china virus|wuhan lab	0	0			1	0	0.46	hist	0	0	no	1
Truth Social	truth social	1	0	0	n	1	0	0.43	hist	0	0	no	1
Hottest Nation	hottest nation	1	0	0	n	1	0	0.41	hist	0	0	no	1
Liberation Day	liberation day	3	1	0.33	Ynn	1	0	0.4	hist	0	0	no	1
Easter	easter	2	0	0	nn	1	0	0.4	hist	0	0	yes	1
Banana Republic	banana republic	2	0	0	nn	1	0	0.39	hist	0	0	no	1
Kanye / Taylor Swift	kanye|taylor swift	0	0			1	0	0.39	hist	0	0	no	1
Judy Shelton	judy shelton	4	0	0	nnnn	1	0	0.36	hist	0	0	no	1
Low Energy	low energy	3	0	0	nnn	1	0	0.35	hist	0	0	no	1
N Word	n word	8	0	0	nnnnnnnn	1	0	0.24	hist	0	0	no	1
Aliens are Real	aliens are real	0	0			1	0	0.51	prior	0	0	no	1
Big Fat Cat	big fat cat	0	0			1	0	0.51	prior	0	0	no	1
Coward	coward	0	0			1	0	0.51	prior	0	0	no	1
Erika Kirk	erika kirk	0	0			1	0	0.51	prior	0	0	no	1
Lonely	lonely	0	0			1	0	0.51	prior	0	0	yes	1
Pulitzer Prize	pulitzer prize	0	0			1	0	0.51	prior	0	0	yes	1
Secret Word	secret word	0	0			1	0	0.51	prior	0	0	no	1
Sudan	sudan	0	0			1	0	0.51	prior	0	0	no	1
UFC Fight	ufc fight	0	0			1	0	0.51	prior	0	0	no	1
War On Fraud	war on fraud	0	0			1	0	0.51	prior	0	0	no	1