# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_month by 2025-12-31 (settled) · 23 words · P p:what-will-trump-say-in-december · as_of 2026-10-27T12:59:19Z
# scope P named · n/y settled before 2025-12-31 · tn/th blank: no transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v P · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules P p:what-will-trump-say-in-december (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between December 1, 2025, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
# coverage no known appearances yet (as of 2026-10-20T23:46:28Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	cnt	cnt_all	res	lower_bound
Democrat shutdown	democrat shutdown	2	2	1	YY	0.63	hist	0	0	yes	1
Skedaddle	skedaddle	3	2	0.67	YnY	0.54	hist	0	0	no	1
Knucklehead / Numbskull / Numskull	knucklehead|numbskull|numskull	0	0			0.5	hist	0	0	no	1
Sucker / Sucked	sucked|sucker	0	0			0.5	hist	0	0	no	1
Fuck / Fucking / Fucked	fuck|fucked|fucking	1	0	0	n	0.41	hist	0	0	no	1
N Word	n word	5	0	0	nnnnn	0.35	hist	0	0	no	1
Very Merry Christmas	very merry christma	1	1	1	Y	0.5	prior	0	0	yes	1
AGI / Artificial general intelligence	agi|artificial general intelligence	0	0			0.5	prior	0	0	no	1
Braggadocious	braggadocious	0	0			0.5	prior	0	0	yes	1
Cycling / Marathon	cycling|marathon	0	0			0.5	prior	0	0	no	1
Honda / Civic	civic|honda	0	0			0.5	prior	0	0	yes	1
I like this guy	i like this guy	0	0			0.5	prior	0	0	yes	1
Lee Greenwood	lee greenwood	0	0			0.5	prior	0	0	yes	1
No more questions	no more question	0	0			0.5	prior	0	0	no	1
Rambunctious	rambunctious	0	0			0.5	prior	0	0	no	1
Real Gold	real gold	0	0			0.5	prior	0	0	yes	1
RINO / Rhino	rhino|rino	0	0			0.5	prior	0	0	no	1
Santa Claus	santa claus	0	0			0.5	prior	0	0	no	1
Super Centennial	super centennial	0	0			0.5	prior	0	0	no	1
Super Duper	super duper	0	0			0.5	prior	0	0	yes	1
Swimmingly	swimmingly	0	0			0.5	prior	0	0	no	1
The Apprentice	the apprentice	0	0			0.5	prior	0	0	yes	1
Trump 2028	trump 2028	0	0			0.5	prior	0	0	no	1