# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_month by 2026-08-31 (settled) · 35 words · P p:what-will-trump-say-in-august-20260728181847522 · as_of 2026-10-27T11:52:58Z
# scope P named · n/y settled before 2026-08-31 · tn/th last 8 transcripts of any kind 2026-08-19..2026-08-28 · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v P · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules P p:what-will-trump-say-in-august-20260728181847522 (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between August 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
# coverage 25 of 36 known appearances transcribed (as of 2026-10-22T14:43:16Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
# text pending: 2 appearances since 2026-08-30 without a transcript yet (tn/th leave them out); newest donald-trump:2026-08-31:remarks: White House video captions, then the official transcript (American Presidency Project) (late)
# rows 1-30 of 35 by p · more: offset=30 (limit=0 lists all)
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	cnt	cnt_all	res	agree	lower_bound
Green New Scam	green new scam	25	16	0.64	YYnnnYYYnn	8	0	0.61	hist	0	0	no		1
Future President	future president	1	1	1	Y	8	0	0.59	hist	2	2	yes	1	
Presidential Walk of Fame	presidential walk of fame	1	1	1	Y	8	0	0.59	hist	0	0	no		1
Sucker	sucker	4	3	0.75	nYYY	8	0	0.58	hist	0	0	no		1
Red Card	red card	2	2	1	YY	8	0	0.57	hist	0	0	no		1
Crooked Joe	crooked joe	3	2	0.67	nYY	8	1	0.57	hist	1	1	yes	1	
Pelosi	pelosi	12	9	0.75	YYYYYYnnYn	8	0	0.54	hist	1	1	yes	1	
American Dream	american dream	26	15	0.58	nYYYYYYYYn	8	2	0.54	hist	7	7	yes	1	
Affordable / Affordability	affordability|affordable	70	28	0.4	nnnnnnYYYY	8	3	0.54	hist	22	34	yes	1	
Thomas Jefferson	thomas jefferson	1	1	1	Y	8	0	0.53	hist	0	0	no		1
Tango	tango	3	2	0.67	YnY	8	0	0.53	hist	0	0	no		1
Ass	ass	11	5	0.45	nYYnYnnnYY	8	0	0.53	hist	1	1	yes	1	
Through the Roof	through the roof	14	8	0.57	nnYnYYYnYn	8	1	0.51	hist	4	4	yes	1	
Midterm	midterm	13	7	0.54	nnYYYYYnnn	8	1	0.51	hist	8	15	yes	1	
Slob	slob	0	0			8	0	0.5	hist	2	2	yes	1	
Marxist	marxist	7	6	0.86	YYYYYYn	8	1	0.49	hist	6	6	yes	1	
Dictionary	dictionary	2	0	0	nn	8	0	0.49	hist	1	1	yes	1	
World Cup	world cup	67	27	0.4	nYYYnnYnYn	8	0	0.47	hist	3	3	yes	1	
State of the Union / State of Union	state of the union|state of union	1	0	0	n	8	1	0.47	hist	5	5	yes	1	
Garbage	garbage	6	5	0.83	YYYYYn	8	0	0.46	hist	0	0	no		1
Shit	shit	3	2	0.67	YYn	8	0	0.46	hist	1	1	yes	1	
Movie Star	movie star	12	4	0.33	nnYYnnnnYn	8	0	0.45	hist	0	0	no		1
Central Casting	central casting	12	3	0.25	YnnnnnnYnn	8	0	0.43	hist	0	0	no		1
Cocaine	cocaine	7	1	0.14	nnnnnnY	8	0	0.43	hist	0	0	no		1
Death to America	death to america	2	0	0	nn	8	0	0.43	hist	0	0	no		1
Potato	potato	2	0	0	nn	8	0	0.43	hist	0	0	no		1
Moscow	moscow	14	5	0.36	YnnYnnnnnY	8	0	0.42	hist	0	0	no		1
Soaking Wet	soaking wet	1	0	0	n	8	0	0.4	hist	0	0	no		1
State of the Art	state of the art	1	0	0	n	8	0	0.4	hist	0	0	no		1
Gay	gay	10	2	0.2	nYnnYnnnnn	8	1	0.39	hist	4	4	yes	1