# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · remarks 2026-03-20 · 33 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-26MAR20 · P p:what-will-trump-say-during-trophy-presentation · as_of 2026-10-24T21:48:43Z
# scope K named; P named · n/y settled before 2026-03-20 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 (under 2 remarks transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-26MAR20 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Commander in Chief Trophy Presentation, then the market resolves to Yes.
# rules P p:what-will-trump-say-during-trophy-presentation (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during the trophy presentation event scheduled for March 20, 2026.
w	key	thr	v	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration	obliterate|obliterated|obliteration	1	K	11	7	0.64	YnYnnYYYYY	1	1	0.67	hist	no
Trillion	trillion	1	K	82	55	0.67	YYnnnnYnnn	1	1	0.62	hist	yes
Democrat	democrat	1	K	107	73	0.68	YnYYYYnYnY	1	1	0.59	hist	yes
Election	election	1	K	77	47	0.61	YnYYnnYYYY	1	1	0.56	hist	yes
Oval Office	oval office	1	P	2	2	1	YY	1	1	0.55	hist	yes
Biden	biden	1	KP	209	144	0.69	nYYYYYnnYn	1	1	0.55	hist	yes
China	china	1	K	131	85	0.65	nYYnYYYYYn	1	1	0.55	hist	no
Iran	iran	1	KP	78	51	0.65	YYYYYYYnYn	1	1	0.55	hist	yes
Nuclear	nuclear	1	K	120	78	0.65	YYYYYYYYYn	1	1	0.52	hist	yes
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	1	K	11	7	0.64	YYnYnYYYYn	1	1	0.51	hist	no
Where are you	where are you	1	P	3	2	0.67	YYn	1	1	0.5	hist	yes
Oil	oil	1	K	51	24	0.47	YnnYYYYnYn	1	1	0.5	hist	no
Hottest	hottest	1	K	176	92	0.52	nnYnnnnnnn	1	1	0.45	hist	no
Gold	gold	1	P	4	2	0.5	YnnY	1	0	0.45	hist	no
Messi / Ronaldo	messi|ronaldo	1	P	0	0			1	0	0.45	hist	no
Stock Market	stock market	1	K	52	27	0.52	YnYnnYnnnn	1	1	0.44	hist	no
Cookie	cookie	1	P	14	8	0.57	YYnYnnnnnY	1	0	0.43	hist	no
Job 10+ times	job#10	10	P	7	3	0.43	nnYYnYn	1	1	0.41	hist	yes
Olympic / Olympics / World Cup	olympic|world cup	1	K	2	1	0.5	Yn	1	0	0.39	hist	no
Epic Fury	epic fury	1	K	17	6	0.35	YYnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.39	hist	no
Excursion	excursion	1	KP	3	1	0.33	nYn	1	0	0.38	hist	no
Rebuild	rebuild	1	P	0	0			1	0	0.37	hist	no
Fight Fight Fight	fight fight fight	1	P	1	0	0	n	1	0	0.36	hist	no
Afford / Affordable / Affordability	afford|affordability|affordable	1	K	11	3	0.27	YnnYnnnnnn	1	1	0.33	hist	no
Hegseth	hegseth	1	K	6	2	0.33	nYYnnn	1	0	0.31	hist	yes
Drone	drone	1	K	36	8	0.22	YnnnnYYYYY	1	0	0.31	hist	no
B-2	b 2	1	P	3	0	0	nnn	1	1	0.3	hist	no
Ballroom	ballroom	1	KP	37	10	0.27	nYnnnnnnYn	1	0	0.29	hist	no
Hell 2+ times	hell#2	2	P	12	3	0.25	nnnYnnnnYn	1	1	0.27	hist	yes
Khamenei / Ayatollah	ayatollah|khamenei	1	P	12	0	0	nnnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.17	hist	no
Mog / Mogged / Mogging	mog|mogged|mogging	1	K	13	0	0	nnnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.12	hist	no
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	1	KP	312	30	0.1	nnnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.04	hist	no
Ball 10+ times	ball#10	10	P	0	0			1	0	0.4	prior	yes