# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · remarks 2025-10-15 · 31 words in 32 rows (listings that settled differently) · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25OCT15 · P p:what-will-trump-say-during-ballroom-dinner-on-october-15 · as_of 2026-10-26T12:04:13Z
# scope K named; P named · n/y settled before 2025-10-15 · tn/th blank: no remarks transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25OCT15 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Bilateral meeting with President of the Argentine Republic on October 14th, then the market resolves to Yes.
# rules P p:what-will-trump-say-during-ballroom-dinner-on-october-15 (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the specified event.
w	key	thr	v	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Biden	biden	1	K	67	55	0.82	YYnYYYYnYY	0.8	hist	yes
Tariff	tariff	1	KP	37	29	0.78	YnYYYnnYYY	0.72	hist	yes
China	china	1	K	37	31	0.84	YnnYYYYYnY	0.69	hist	yes
Election	election	1	K	13	10	0.77	YnYnYYYnYY	0.67	hist	yes
Hottest	hottest	1	KP	23	16	0.7	YYYnYYYYYY	0.66	hist	yes
Shutdown / Shut Down	shut down|shutdown	1	K	12	8	0.67	nYYYYYYYYn	0.62	hist	yes
Shutdown / Shut Down	shut down|shutdown	1	P	12	8	0.67	nYYYYYYYYn	0.62	hist	no
China / President Xi	china|president xi	1	P	0	0			0.62	hist	yes
Drug	drug	1	K	7	5	0.71	nYYnYYY	0.59	hist	yes
Biden 3+ times	biden#3	3	P	9	6	0.67	nYnYYYnYY	0.57	hist	no
MAGA / Make America Great Again	maga|make america great again	1	P	24	18	0.75	nYYnYYYYYn	0.52	hist	no
Radical Left	radical left	1	K	7	5	0.71	YYYYnYn	0.5	hist	yes
Communist	communist	1	P	3	2	0.67	nYY	0.46	hist	no
Slopadopoulos / ABC Fake News	abc fake new|slopadopoulo	1	P	0	0			0.46	hist	no
Rare Earth / Mineral	mineral|rare earth	1	K	3	1	0.33	nYn	0.44	hist	no
Economy	economy	1	K	8	4	0.5	YYnnnYYn	0.43	hist	yes
Charlie / Kirk	charlie|kirk	1	K	6	3	0.5	nYnnYY	0.43	hist	no
Investment	investment	1	K	10	4	0.4	nnYYYYnnnn	0.41	hist	yes
Border 5+ times	border#5	5	P	14	9	0.64	YYnYnnYYYn	0.4	hist	no
Schumer	schumer	1	K	3	1	0.33	nYn	0.38	hist	yes
Socialism	socialism	1	K	0	0			0.38	hist	no
Russia / Ukraine	russia|ukraine	1	P	7	3	0.43	nYnnYYn	0.36	hist	yes
Hell 3+ times	hell#3	3	P	18	8	0.44	nYnYnnnnnn	0.34	hist	no
Woke	woke	1	K	19	3	0.16	nnnnnYnnYn	0.33	hist	yes
Nobel / Peace Prize	nobel|peace prize	1	P	2	0	0	nn	0.33	hist	yes
Bitcoin / Crypto	bitcoin|crypto	1	KP	137	8	0.06	nYYYnnnnnn	0.13	hist	no
Bailout / Bail Out	bail out|bailout	1	K	0	0			0.41	prior	no
Dollar	dollar	1	K	0	0			0.41	prior	yes
Lithium	lithium	1	K	0	0			0.41	prior	no
Peso	peso	1	K	0	0			0.41	prior	no
Job 10+ times	job#10	10	P	0	0			0.4	prior	no
Rose Garden	rose garden	1	P	0	0			0.4	prior	no