# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · posts_window by 2026-05-31 (settled) · 22 words · P p:what-will-trump-post-this-week-may-31 · as_of 2026-10-27T10:00:12Z
# scope P named · n/y settled before 2026-05-31 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 (under 2 posts window transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v P · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules P p:what-will-trump-post-this-week-may-31 (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if @realDonaldTrump posts/truths the listed term between May 25, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
# coverage the post archive does not cover the window (as of 2026-10-21T04:05:46Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	cnt	cnt_all	res	lower_bound
Secret Service	secret service	10	8	0.8	YnYYYYnYYY	1	1	0.54	hist	0	0	yes	1
NATO	nato	71	35	0.49	YYYnnnYnnn	1	1	0.53	hist	0	0	no	1
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	80	52	0.65	YnYYYnnnYY	1	0	0.52	hist	0	0	yes	1
Gold / Golden	gold|golden	4	2	0.5	YnnY	1	0	0.49	hist	0	0	yes	1
Scam	scam	3	2	0.67	YnY	1	1	0.46	hist	0	0	no	1
Russia	russia	59	33	0.56	YYnYYYYnnn	1	1	0.45	hist	0	0	yes	1
Israel	israel	57	31	0.54	YnYYnYYnYn	1	1	0.45	hist	0	0	no	1
Crime	crime	12	6	0.5	nYnnYYnnYY	1	1	0.44	hist	0	0	yes	1
Ted / Cruz	cruz|ted	1	1	1	Y	1	0	0.42	hist	0	0	yes	1
Coast Guard	coast guard	0	0			1	0	0.39	hist	0	0	no	1
Ballroom	ballroom	70	22	0.31	nYnYnnnYnn	1	0	0.38	hist	0	0	yes	1
CIA / C.I.A	cia	0	0			1	0	0.37	hist	0	0	yes	1
Wall Street	wall street	8	4	0.5	YYnYYnnn	1	0	0.36	hist	0	0	yes	1
Cuba	cuba	23	8	0.35	YnnYnnYYnn	1	0	0.36	hist	0	0	no	1
Fed / Federal Reserve	fed|federal reserve	7	2	0.29	YnnYnnn	1	0	0.35	hist	0	0	yes	1
Baby	baby	8	4	0.5	YnYYnYnn	1	1	0.34	hist	0	0	no	1
Sleepy Joe Biden	sleepy joe biden	1	0	0	n	1	1	0.34	hist	0	0	yes	1
Uranium	uranium	12	0	0	nnnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.21	hist	0	0	yes	1
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	380	38	0.1	nnnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.15	hist	0	0	yes	1
CBS	cbs	0	0			1	0	0.4	prior	0	0	no	1
Spencer / Pratt	pratt|spencer	0	0			1	0	0.4	prior	0	0	no	1
The Pope	the pope	0	0			1	0	0.4	prior	0	0	yes	1