# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · posts_window by 2026-05-24 (settled) · 31 words · P p:what-will-trump-post-this-week-may-24 · as_of 2026-10-25T04:18:16Z
# scope P named · n/y settled before 2026-05-24 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 (under 2 posts window transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v P · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules P p:what-will-trump-post-this-week-may-24 (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if @realDonaldTrump posts/truths the listed term between May 18, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and May 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
# coverage the post archive does not cover the window (as of 2026-10-21T04:05:46Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	cnt	cnt_all	res	lower_bound
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	81	60	0.74	YYnYnYYnYn	1	1	0.7	hist	0	0	yes	1
Midterm	midterm	10	7	0.7	nYYnnYYYYY	1	0	0.59	hist	0	0	no	1
Fake News	fake new	105	59	0.56	YYYnnYnYYY	1	1	0.55	hist	0	0	yes	1
Scam / Hoax	hoax|scam	3	3	1	YYY	1	1	0.54	hist	0	0	no	1
New York	new york	36	25	0.69	YYnnYYYYYn	1	1	0.54	hist	0	0	yes	1
Transgender	transgender	127	70	0.55	YnYYnnnYnY	1	1	0.51	hist	0	0	yes	1
Television / TV	television|tv	5	3	0.6	YnnYY	1	1	0.47	hist	0	0	yes	1
Chair	chair	1	1	1	Y	1	0	0.46	hist	0	0	yes	1
World Cup	world cup	24	10	0.42	nnnYnnnnYn	1	0	0.46	hist	0	0	yes	1
Crooked	crooked	3	2	0.67	YnY	1	1	0.45	hist	0	0	yes	1
IQ	iq	23	12	0.52	YYnYYYnnnn	1	1	0.44	hist	0	0	no	1
Shit / Fuck / Fucked	fuck|fucked|shit	0	0			1	0	0.44	hist	0	0	no	1
Wall Street	wall street	7	4	0.57	YYnYYnn	1	0	0.43	hist	0	0	no	1
Cookie	cookie	19	10	0.53	nnnnYYnYnn	1	0	0.42	hist	0	0	no	1
Six Seven	six seven	28	10	0.36	YnYnnnnnnY	1	0	0.41	hist	0	0	no	1
Harvard	harvard	7	3	0.43	nYYnnYn	1	1	0.4	hist	0	0	no	1
Cuba	cuba	21	7	0.33	nnYnnYnnYn	1	0	0.39	hist	0	0	no	1
Gold / Golden	gold|golden	3	1	0.33	Ynn	1	0	0.38	hist	0	0	yes	1
Restaurant	restaurant	1	0	0	n	1	1	0.38	hist	0	0	no	1
Autopen	autopen	39	17	0.44	YYYnnnnnnn	1	0	0.37	hist	0	0	no	1
Gene / Genetic	gene|genetic	1	0	0	n	1	0	0.37	hist	0	0	no	1
Central Casting	central casting	7	2	0.29	nYYnnnn	1	0	0.36	hist	0	0	no	1
Gun	gun	2	0	0	nn	1	1	0.35	hist	0	0	yes	1
Dad / Daddy	dad|daddy	0	0			1	0	0.32	hist	0	0	yes	1
Peanut	peanut	18	2	0.11	YnnnnnYnnn	1	0	0.3	hist	0	0	no	1
Cocaine	cocaine	5	0	0	nnnnn	1	0	0.29	hist	0	0	no	1
Big / Bigger / Biggest	big|bigger|biggest	0	0			1	1	0.4	prior	0	0	yes	1
Critic	critic	0	0			1	0	0.4	prior	0	0	no	1
Shenanigan	shenanigan	0	0			1	0	0.4	prior	0	0	no	1
Tina	tina	0	0			1	0	0.4	prior	0	0	no	1
Treason / Treasonous	treason|treasonous	0	0			1	0	0.4	prior	0	0	no	1