# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · posts_window by 2026-03-15 (settled) · 30 words · P p:what-will-trump-post-this-week-march-9-march-15 · as_of 2026-10-25T12:01:58Z
# scope P named · n/y settled before 2026-03-15 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 (under 2 posts window transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v P · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules P p:what-will-trump-post-this-week-march-9-march-15 (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if @realDonaldTrump posts/truths the listed term between March 9, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
# coverage the post archive does not cover the window (as of 2026-10-21T04:05:46Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	cnt	cnt_all	res	lower_bound
President DJT	president djt	2	2	1	YY	1	0	0.61	hist	0	0	yes	1
Nuclear	nuclear	116	75	0.65	YYYYYYYYYY	1	1	0.59	hist	0	0	yes	1
Transgender	transgender	80	44	0.55	YYYYnnYYYn	1	1	0.55	hist	0	0	yes	1
Save America Act	save america act	1	1	1	Y	1	0	0.54	hist	0	0	yes	1
SOTU / State of the Union	sotu|state of the union	0	0			1	0	0.53	hist	0	0	yes	1
Fake News	fake new	69	37	0.54	nnYnYnYYnn	1	1	0.51	hist	0	0	yes	1
Endorse / Endorsement	endorse|endorsement	1	1	1	Y	1	0	0.49	hist	0	0	yes	1
Epic Fury	epic fury	10	5	0.5	YnnnYYYYnn	1	0	0.49	hist	0	0	no	1
Wall Street	wall street	4	3	0.75	YYnY	1	0	0.48	hist	0	0	yes	1
Peace in the Middle East	peace in the middle east	14	8	0.57	YnnnYYYnYn	1	0	0.48	hist	0	0	no	1
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome	tds|trump derangement syndrome	21	10	0.48	nnYnYYYnnn	1	0	0.47	hist	0	0	yes	1
Spain	spain	1	1	1	Y	1	0	0.46	hist	0	0	no	1
MIGA / Make Iran Great Again	make iran great again|miga	0	0			1	0	0.46	hist	0	0	no	1
DOJ	doj	0	0			1	0	0.45	hist	0	0	yes	1
Ass	ass	7	3	0.43	nnYYnYn	1	0	0.44	hist	0	0	no	1
Department of Defense / DoD	department of defense|dod	0	0			1	1	0.43	hist	0	0	no	1
Kristi / Noem	kristi|noem	5	2	0.4	YnnYn	1	1	0.42	hist	0	0	no	1
Harvard	harvard	5	2	0.4	nYYnn	1	1	0.41	hist	0	0	yes	1
Panican	panican	3	0	0	nnn	1	0	0.41	hist	0	0	no	1
Stupid	stupid	9	4	0.44	nYnYYnYnn	1	1	0.4	hist	0	0	no	1
Cuba	cuba	8	2	0.25	YnnnnYnn	1	0	0.39	hist	0	0	yes	1
Epstein	epstein	93	20	0.22	nnYnnnnnnn	1	0	0.27	hist	0	0	yes	1
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	304	30	0.1	nnnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.18	hist	0	0	no	1
DHS	dhs	0	0			1	0	0.44	prior	0	0	no	1
God Bless America	god bless america	0	0			1	0	0.44	prior	0	0	no	1
Markwayne / Mullin	markwayne|mullin	0	0			1	0	0.44	prior	0	0	no	1
Most Powerful Military	most powerful military	0	0			1	0	0.44	prior	0	0	no	1
My Great Honor	my great honor	0	0			1	0	0.44	prior	0	0	yes	1
Revolutionary Guard	revolutionary guard	0	0			1	0	0.44	prior	0	0	no	1
Winston Churchill	winston churchill	0	0			1	0	0.44	prior	0	0	no	1