# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · posts_window by 2026-03-22 (settled) · 30 words · P p:what-will-trump-post-this-week-march-16-march-22 · as_of 2026-10-27T00:21:00Z
# scope P named · n/y settled before 2026-03-22 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 (under 2 posts window transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v P · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules P p:what-will-trump-post-this-week-march-16-march-22 (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if @realDonaldTrump posts/truths the listed term between March 16, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
# coverage the post archive does not cover the window (as of 2026-10-21T04:05:46Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	cnt	cnt_all	res	lower_bound
Filibuster	filibuster	3	3	1	YYY	1	0	0.55	hist	0	0	yes	1
Texas	texa	7	3	0.43	nnYnnYY	1	1	0.5	hist	0	0	yes	1
SOTU / State of the Union / State of Our Union	sotu|state of our union|state of the union	0	0			1	0	0.49	hist	0	0	no	1
Venezuela	venezuela	18	10	0.56	nnnYYnYYYn	1	1	0.47	hist	0	0	yes	1
Terrorist	terrorist	11	5	0.45	nYYnYnnnnY	1	1	0.46	hist	0	0	yes	1
Epic Fury	epic fury	18	6	0.33	Ynnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.44	hist	0	0	no	1
Hillary / Clinton	clinton|hillary	1	0	0	n	1	0	0.44	hist	0	0	no	1
Son	son	0	0			1	1	0.42	hist	0	0	no	1
Democrat Shutdown	democrat shutdown	7	4	0.57	YYYYnnn	1	1	0.4	hist	0	0	no	1
Too Big to Rig	too big to rig	5	2	0.4	YnYnn	1	0	0.4	hist	0	0	no	1
Ass	ass	8	3	0.38	nnYYnYnn	1	0	0.37	hist	0	0	no	1
Hamas / Hezbollah	hama|hezbollah	4	1	0.25	Ynnn	1	1	0.37	hist	0	0	no	1
Claude / Anthropic	anthropic|claude	0	0			1	0	0.37	hist	0	0	no	1
Mamdani	mamdani	0	0			1	0	0.35	hist	0	0	no	1
Stupid	stupid	10	4	0.4	nYnYYnYnnn	1	1	0.34	hist	0	0	no	1
Peace Through Strength	peace through strength	9	2	0.22	YnnnYnnnn	1	1	0.34	hist	0	0	yes	1
Hormuz	hormuz	16	3	0.19	nnnYYnnnnn	1	0	0.29	hist	0	0	yes	1
RINO	rino	4	0	0	nnnn	1	0	0.29	hist	0	0	yes	1
Ayatollah / Khamenei	ayatollah|khamenei	13	0	0	nnnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.22	hist	0	0	yes	1
Chairman	chairman	0	0			1	0	0.44	prior	0	0	yes	1
Cornyn	cornyn	0	0			1	0	0.44	prior	0	0	no	1
Death to America	death to america	0	0			1	0	0.44	prior	0	0	no	1
Donald Trump	donald trump	0	0			1	0	0.44	prior	0	0	yes	1
Illinois	illinois	0	0			1	0	0.44	prior	0	0	no	1
IRGC / Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps	irgc|islamic revolutionary guard corp	0	0			1	0	0.44	prior	0	0	no	1
Jake Paul	jake paul	0	0			1	0	0.44	prior	0	0	no	1
Lawsuit	lawsuit	0	0			1	1	0.44	prior	0	0	no	1
Mutilization	mutilization	0	0			1	0	0.44	prior	0	0	yes	1
Oscar / Oscars	oscar	0	0			1	0	0.44	prior	0	0	no	1
Strait of Hormuz	strait of hormuz	0	0			1	0	0.44	prior	0	0	yes	1