# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · posts_window by 2026-04-12 (settled) · 23 words · P p:what-will-trump-post-this-week-april-6-april-12 · as_of 2026-10-27T21:20:33Z
# scope P named · n/y settled before 2026-04-12 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 (under 2 posts window transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v P · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules P p:what-will-trump-post-this-week-april-6-april-12 (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if @realDonaldTrump posts/truths the listed term between April 6, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
# coverage the post archive does not cover the window (as of 2026-10-21T04:05:46Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	cnt	cnt_all	res	lower_bound
Predict / Prediction / Predicted	predict|predicted|prediction	0	0			1	0	0.59	hist	0	0	no	1
Filibuster	filibuster	8	6	0.75	YYYYnYYn	1	0	0.57	hist	0	0	no	1
Trump	trump	54	33	0.61	YnYYYYYnYY	1	1	0.56	hist	0	0	yes	1
NATO	nato	60	30	0.5	YnYnnYnnnY	1	1	0.53	hist	0	0	yes	1
Ass / Shit	ass|shit	10	7	0.7	YnnYYYYnYY	1	0	0.52	hist	0	0	no	1
Peace Through Strength	peace through strength	13	4	0.31	nYnnnnYYnn	1	1	0.43	hist	0	0	yes	1
Pam / Bondi	bondi|pam	14	9	0.64	YYYnnnYnYn	1	0	0.42	hist	0	0	no	1
Hell	hell	30	12	0.4	YnnnnnnYYn	1	1	0.38	hist	0	0	yes	1
Invasion	invasion	2	0	0	nn	1	1	0.38	hist	0	0	no	1
JD / Vance	jd|vance	4	1	0.25	Ynnn	1	0	0.36	hist	0	0	yes	1
Hungary	hungary	0	0			1	0	0.36	hist	0	0	yes	1
Paper Tiger	paper tiger	2	0	0	nn	1	0	0.35	hist	0	0	no	1
Keir / Starmer	keir|starmer	4	1	0.25	nnYn	1	1	0.34	hist	0	0	no	1
Ballroom	ballroom	47	13	0.28	nnYnYYnnnn	1	0	0.33	hist	0	0	no	1
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	125	50	0.4	nnnnnYnnnn	1	1	0.31	hist	0	0	no	1
Make Iran Great Again / MIGA	make iran great again|miga	2	0	0	nn	1	0	0.31	hist	0	0	no	1
Epic Fury	epic fury	31	13	0.42	YnnYnYYnYn	1	0	0.3	hist	0	0	yes	1
Bully of the Middle East	bully of the middle east	2	0	0	nn	1	0	0.27	hist	0	0	no	1
Free Tina Peters	free tina peter	2	0	0	nn	1	0	0.27	hist	0	0	no	1
Panican	panican	6	0	0	nnnnnn	1	0	0.23	hist	0	0	no	1
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	332	34	0.1	nnYYYnnnnn	1	0	0.15	hist	0	0	yes	1
Artemis / Orion	artemis|orion	0	0			1	0	0.4	prior	0	0	yes	1
Peter / Magyar	magyar|peter	0	0			1	0	0.4	prior	0	0	no	1