# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · posts_window by 2026-04-19 (settled) · 30 words · P p:what-will-trump-post-this-week-april-13-april-19 · as_of 2026-10-26T11:52:43Z
# scope P named · n/y settled before 2026-04-19 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 (under 2 posts window transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v P · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules P p:what-will-trump-post-this-week-april-13-april-19 (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if @realDonaldTrump posts/truths the listed term between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
# coverage the post archive does not cover the window (as of 2026-10-21T04:05:46Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	cnt	cnt_all	res	lower_bound
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	70	53	0.76	YYYYYYYYnY	1	1	0.72	hist	0	0	yes	1
Save America Act / Save Act	save act|save america act	16	10	0.62	YnYnnYYYnn	1	0	0.55	hist	0	0	yes	1
FBI	fbi	6	5	0.83	YYnYYY	1	0	0.54	hist	0	0	yes	1
China / Xi	china|xi	0	0			1	1	0.54	hist	0	0	yes	1
Endorsed / Endorsement	endorsed|endorsement	0	0			1	0	0.48	hist	0	0	yes	1
Harvard	harvard	6	3	0.5	nYYnnY	1	1	0.47	hist	0	0	no	1
Ass / Shit	ass|shit	12	8	0.67	nYYYYnYYYn	1	0	0.46	hist	0	0	yes	1
Poll / Polling	poll|polling	0	0			1	0	0.43	hist	0	0	yes	1
UFC	ufc	19	9	0.47	YnnnnYYYnn	1	0	0.42	hist	0	0	no	1
Charlie / Kirk	charlie|kirk	7	3	0.43	nYnnYYn	1	0	0.4	hist	0	0	yes	1
Banned	banned	0	0			1	1	0.39	hist	0	0	yes	1
Epic Fury	epic fury	34	15	0.44	YnYYnYYnYn	1	0	0.38	hist	0	0	no	1
Viktor / Orban / Orbán	orban|viktor	1	0	0	n	1	0	0.38	hist	0	0	no	1
Democrat Shutdown	democrat shutdown	12	6	0.5	YYnnnnnYnY	1	1	0.37	hist	0	0	no	1
TSA / DHS	dhs|tsa	0	0			1	0	0.37	hist	0	0	yes	1
Hezbollah	hezbollah	8	1	0.12	nYnnnnnn	1	0	0.36	hist	0	0	yes	1
Hoax	hoax	29	11	0.38	nnnnnnYnnn	1	0	0.34	hist	0	0	yes	1
God Bless America	god bless america	1	0	0	n	1	0	0.34	hist	0	0	no	1
Epstein	epstein	104	25	0.24	nnnYnnnnYn	1	0	0.33	hist	0	0	no	1
Ballroom	ballroom	49	13	0.27	YnYYnnnnnn	1	0	0.29	hist	0	0	yes	1
Stupid	stupid	12	4	0.33	nYYnYnnnnn	1	1	0.28	hist	0	0	no	1
Spain	spain	3	1	0.33	Ynn	1	0	0.27	hist	0	0	yes	1
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	339	36	0.11	nnnYnYnnnn	1	0	0.25	hist	0	0	no	1
Free Tina Peters	free tina peter	3	0	0	nnn	1	0	0.23	hist	0	0	no	1
Panican	panican	7	0	0	nnnnnnn	1	0	0.2	hist	0	0	yes	1
AG / Attorney General	ag|attorney general	0	0			1	0	0.4	prior	0	0	yes	1
Lisa	lisa	0	0			1	0	0.4	prior	0	0	yes	1
Military Operation	military operation	0	0			1	1	0.4	prior	0	0	yes	1
New York Times	new york time	0	0			1	1	0.4	prior	0	0	yes	1
POTUS	potus	0	0			1	0	0.4	prior	0	0	yes	1