# World News Tonight (world-news-tonight) · tv_episode 2026-07-27 · 15 words · K k:KXWORLDNEWSMENTION-26JUL27 · as_of 2026-10-24T03:50:34Z
# scope K host_or_reporter · n/y settled before 2026-07-27 · tn/th blank: no tv episode transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXWORLDNEWSMENTION-26JUL27 ({word} = w of K rows): If any host or reporter says {word} as part of ABC World News Tonight with David Muir , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Iran (3+ times)	iran#3	3	11	9	0.82	YnYYnYYYYY	0.67	hist	yes
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	1	13	10	0.77	YYYnYYYYYY	0.67	hist	no
Trump (3+ times)	trump#3	3	6	4	0.67	nnYYYY	0.57	hist	yes
JD / Vance	jd|vance	1	1	1	1	Y	0.5	hist	yes
Nuclear	nuclear	1	1	1	1	Y	0.5	hist	no
LeBron	lebron	1	4	2	0.5	nnYY	0.47	hist	no
ICE	ice	1	7	4	0.57	YYYYnnn	0.46	hist	no
Zelenskyy / Ukraine	ukraine|zelenskyy	1	0	0			0.31	hist	no
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	1	7	1	0.14	nnnnnYn	0.29	hist	no
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	1	4	0	0	nnnn	0.26	hist	no
Ceasefire	ceasefire	1	11	1	0.09	Ynnnnnnnnn	0.21	hist	no
Cracker Barrel	cracker barrel	1	0	0			0.42	prior	no
Hurricane	hurricane	1	0	0			0.42	prior	no
Odyssey	odyssey	1	0	0			0.42	prior	no
White House Correspondents Dinner	white house correspondents dinner	1	0	0			0.42	prior	no