# World News Tonight (world-news-tonight) · tv_episode 2026-07-14 · 14 words · K k:KXWORLDNEWSMENTION-26JUL14 · as_of 2026-10-24T19:34:06Z
# scope K host_or_reporter · n/y settled before 2026-07-14 · tn/th blank: no tv episode transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXWORLDNEWSMENTION-26JUL14 ({word} = w of K rows): If any reporter says {word} as part of ABC World News Tonight with David Muir , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Trump	trump	1	2	2	1	YY	0.51	hist	yes
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	1	5	3	0.6	nnYYY	0.48	hist	yes
Iran (3+ times)	iran#3	3	3	2	0.67	YYn	0.44	hist	yes
Hormuz	hormuz	1	4	2	0.5	nYnY	0.42	hist	yes
Ceasefire	ceasefire	1	3	1	0.33	nYn	0.34	hist	no
Wildfire / Fire	fire|wildfire	1	0	0			0.31	hist	yes
Russia / Ukraine	russia|ukraine	1	1	0	0	n	0.3	hist	no
World Cup	world cup	1	3	0	0	nnn	0.23	hist	yes
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	1	0	0			0.35	prior	no
Cyclosporiasis / Cyclospora	cyclospora|cyclosporiasis	1	0	0			0.35	prior	yes
Data Center	data center	1	0	0			0.35	prior	no
ICE	ice	1	0	0			0.35	prior	yes
Inflation	inflation	1	0	0			0.35	prior	yes
Lake Powell	lake powell	1	0	0			0.35	prior	no