# World News Tonight (world-news-tonight) · tv_episode 2026-07-09 · 14 words · K k:KXWORLDNEWSMENTION-26JUL09 · as_of 2026-10-25T17:34:50Z
# scope K host · n/y settled before 2026-07-09 · tn/th blank: no tv episode transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXWORLDNEWSMENTION-26JUL09 ({word} = w of K rows): If David Muir says {word} as part of ABC World News Tonight with David Muir , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Charlie / Kirk	charlie|kirk	1	1	1	1	Y	0.4	hist	yes
Drone	drone	1	1	1	1	Y	0.4	hist	yes
Hormuz	hormuz	1	2	1	0.5	nY	0.26	hist	no
NATO	nato	1	2	0	0	nn	0.26	hist	no
Russia / Putin	putin|russia	1	1	0	0	n	0.25	hist	no
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	1	3	1	0.33	nnY	0.22	hist	yes
Iran (3 + times)	iran#3	3	1	1	1	Y	0.3	prior	yes
Ceasefire	ceasefire	1	1	0	0	n	0.3	prior	yes
Mitch / McConnell	mcconnell|mitch	1	1	0	0	n	0.3	prior	no
World Cup	world cup	1	1	0	0	n	0.3	prior	no
Ballroom / Pool	ballroom|pool	1	0	0			0.3	prior	yes
Ebola	ebola	1	0	0			0.3	prior	no
Graham / Platner	graham|platner	1	0	0			0.3	prior	yes
Trump	trump	1	0	0			0.3	prior	yes