# World News Tonight (world-news-tonight) · tv_episode 2026-08-18 · 15 words · K k:KXWORLDNEWSMENTION-26AUG18 · as_of 2026-10-24T12:38:28Z
# scope K host_or_reporter · n/y settled before 2026-08-18 · tn/th blank: no tv episode transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXWORLDNEWSMENTION-26AUG18 ({word} = w of K rows): If any host or reporter says {word} as part of ABC World News Tonight with David Muir , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Trump (5+ times)	trump#5	5	18	13	0.72	nYYYYYYnYY	0.65	hist	no
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	1	23	17	0.74	nYYYnYYYnY	0.63	hist	no
Iran (3+ times)	iran#3	3	27	18	0.67	YnYnnYnnnY	0.51	hist	no
Oman	oman	1	1	1	1	Y	0.49	hist	no
Ukraine / Ukrainian	ukraine|ukrainian	1	2	0	0	nn	0.32	hist	yes
ICE	ice	1	19	5	0.26	nnnnnnnYnn	0.26	hist	yes
Tariff	tariff	1	7	0	0	nnnnnnn	0.22	hist	no
Ceasefire	ceasefire	1	21	1	0.05	nnnnnnnnnn	0.15	hist	no
Alaska	alaska	1	0	0			0.4	prior	no
Chucky	chucky	1	0	0			0.4	prior	no
Disney	disney	1	0	0			0.4	prior	no
Hawaii	hawaii	1	0	0			0.4	prior	no
Lake Mead	lake mead	1	0	0			0.4	prior	no
Meta / Facebook / Instagram	facebook|instagram|meta	1	0	0			0.4	prior	no
Penn State	penn state	1	0	0			0.4	prior	yes