# World News Tonight (world-news-tonight) · tv_episode 2026-08-14 · 14 words · K k:KXWORLDNEWSMENTION-26AUG14 · as_of 2026-10-24T18:31:34Z
# scope K host_or_reporter · n/y settled before 2026-08-14 · tn/th blank: no tv episode transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXWORLDNEWSMENTION-26AUG14 ({word} = w of K rows): If any host or reporter says {word} as part of ABC World News Tonight with David Muir , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Trump (5+ times)	trump#5	5	16	11	0.69	YYnYYYYYYn	0.61	hist	yes
Iran (3+ times)	iran#3	3	25	17	0.68	YYYnYnnYnn	0.51	hist	no
Powerball	powerball	1	5	3	0.6	nYnYY	0.5	hist	no
Luigi / Mangione	luigi|mangione	1	1	1	1	Y	0.48	hist	yes
USS Abraham Lincoln	uss abraham lincoln	1	1	1	1	Y	0.48	hist	no
Ballroom / Pool	ballroom|pool	1	1	1	1	Y	0.45	hist	yes
Hormuz	hormuz	1	9	4	0.44	nYnYYnYnn	0.39	hist	yes
Hurricane	hurricane	1	1	0	0	n	0.35	hist	yes
Apache	apache	1	1	0	0	n	0.33	hist	yes
Harvard	harvard	1	1	0	0	n	0.33	hist	no
Karoline / Leavitt	karoline|leavitt	1	1	0	0	n	0.33	hist	no
Supreme Court	supreme court	1	2	0	0	nn	0.32	hist	yes
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	1	18	3	0.17	nnnYnYnnnn	0.25	hist	no
Blockade	blockade	1	0	0			0.39	prior	no