# World News Tonight (world-news-tonight) · tv_episode 2026-08-10 · 15 words · K k:KXWORLDNEWSMENTION-26AUG10 · as_of 2026-10-25T07:51:45Z
# scope K host_or_reporter · n/y settled before 2026-08-10 · tn/th blank: no tv episode transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXWORLDNEWSMENTION-26AUG10 ({word} = w of K rows): If any host or reporter says {word} as part of ABC World News Tonight with David Muir , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Iran (3+ times)	iran#3	3	21	16	0.76	YnYYYYYnYn	0.62	hist	no
Trump (5+ times)	trump#5	5	12	8	0.67	nYYYYYnYYY	0.61	hist	yes
Drone	drone	1	3	3	1	YYY	0.57	hist	no
Blanche	blanche	1	8	5	0.62	nnYYYYnY	0.54	hist	no
Jalapeno	jalapeno	1	1	1	1	Y	0.49	hist	yes
Midterm	midterm	1	6	2	0.33	nYnnYn	0.37	hist	no
Gaza	gaza	1	1	0	0	n	0.37	hist	no
Ukraine / Ukrainian	ukraine|ukrainian	1	1	0	0	n	0.37	hist	no
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	1	14	3	0.21	nYnnnnnYnY	0.33	hist	no
FIFA	fifa	1	2	0	0	nn	0.32	hist	no
ICE	ice	1	17	5	0.29	nnnnnnnnnY	0.29	hist	no
Ebola	ebola	1	4	0	0	nnnn	0.27	hist	no
Kardashian	kardashian	1	0	0			0.41	prior	no
Tupac	tupac	1	0	0			0.41	prior	no
Zuckerberg	zuckerberg	1	0	0			0.41	prior	no