# World News Tonight (world-news-tonight) · tv_episode 2026-08-07 · 13 words · K k:KXWORLDNEWSMENTION-26AUG07 · as_of 2026-10-24T22:03:56Z
# scope K host_or_reporter · n/y settled before 2026-08-07 · tn/th blank: no tv episode transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXWORLDNEWSMENTION-26AUG07 ({word} = w of K rows): If any host or reporter says {word} as part of ABC World News Tonight with David Muir , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Iran (3+ times)	iran#3	3	20	16	0.8	YYnYYYYYnY	0.67	hist	no
Trump (5+ times)	trump#5	5	11	7	0.64	nnYYYYYnYY	0.58	hist	yes
Blanche	blanche	1	7	4	0.57	nnYYYYn	0.5	hist	yes
Ballroom	ballroom	1	0	0			0.45	hist	yes
Powerball	powerball	1	2	1	0.5	nY	0.44	hist	no
Ukraine	ukraine	1	7	3	0.43	nYnnYYn	0.43	hist	no
Midterm	midterm	1	5	2	0.4	nYnnY	0.41	hist	no
McConnell	mcconnell	1	1	0	0	n	0.35	hist	no
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	1	13	2	0.15	nnYnnnnnYn	0.27	hist	yes
ICE	ice	1	16	4	0.25	nnnnnnnnnn	0.24	hist	yes
Ceasefire	ceasefire	1	19	1	0.05	nnnnnnnnnn	0.15	hist	no
Birthright	birthright	1	0	0			0.41	prior	no
UFO / UAP	uap|ufo	1	0	0			0.41	prior	yes