# World News Tonight (world-news-tonight) · tv_episode 2026-08-01 · 17 words · K k:KXWORLDNEWSMENTION-26AUG01 · as_of 2026-10-24T21:40:00Z
# scope K host_or_reporter · n/y settled before 2026-08-01 · tn/th blank: no tv episode transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXWORLDNEWSMENTION-26AUG01 ({word} = w of K rows): If any host or reporter says {word} as part of ABC World News Tonight with David Muir , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	1	17	13	0.76	YYYYYYnYYY	0.67	hist	no
Iran (3+ times)	iran#3	3	15	12	0.8	nYYYYYYnYY	0.66	hist	yes
Trump (5+ times)	trump#5	5	6	3	0.5	nnnYYY	0.49	hist	yes
Blanche	blanche	1	4	2	0.5	nnYY	0.46	hist	yes
Ukraine	ukraine	1	2	1	0.5	nY	0.45	hist	no
Midterm	midterm	1	3	1	0.33	nYn	0.38	hist	no
NATO	nato	1	5	1	0.2	nnnnY	0.36	hist	no
Diddy	diddy	1	1	0	0	n	0.35	hist	no
Egypt	egypt	1	1	0	0	n	0.35	hist	no
FIFA	fifa	1	1	0	0	n	0.35	hist	no
Leopold / Aschenbrenner	aschenbrenner|leopold	1	1	0	0	n	0.35	hist	no
ICE	ice	1	11	4	0.36	YYYnnnnnnn	0.32	hist	no
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	1	11	1	0.09	nnnnYnnnnn	0.22	hist	yes
Ceasefire	ceasefire	1	14	1	0.07	nnnnnnnnnn	0.18	hist	no
Jersey Mike	jersey mike	1	0	0			0.4	prior	no
Kalshi	kalshi	1	0	0			0.4	prior	no
Tony Romo	tony romo	1	0	0			0.4	prior	yes