# JD Vance (jd-vance) · speech 2026-09-09 · 29 words · K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26SEP09 · P p:what-will-jd-vance-say-during-rnc-convention · as_of 2026-10-24T23:20:09Z
# scope K named; P named · n/y settled before 2026-09-09 · tn/th last 5 transcripts of any kind 2025-10-01..2026-09-03 (under 2 speech transcripts) · same on every row: p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26SEP09 ({word} = w of K rows): If JD Vance says {word} as part of RNC Midterm Convention , then the market resolves to Yes.
# rules P p:what-will-jd-vance-say-during-rnc-convention (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if JD Vance says the listed term during the specified appearance.
w	key	thr	v	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	res
Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime	tax on overtime|tax on tip	1	KP	9	8	0.89	YYYYnYYYY	5	0	0.66	yes
Democrat	democrat	1	K	40	29	0.72	YnYYnYYYYY	5	4	0.62	yes
Hell	hell	1	P	2	2	1	YY	5	3	0.58	yes
Illegal Alien	illegal alien	1	KP	35	23	0.66	nYYYYnnYYY	5	3	0.53	yes
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	1	K	23	12	0.52	YYYYYYnnYY	5	3	0.53	no
China / Chinese	china|chinese	1	KP	12	8	0.67	nnYYnYYYnY	5	2	0.52	no
Biden	biden	1	K	57	37	0.65	nnYYnnYYYY	5	4	0.52	yes
Charlie / Kirk	charlie|kirk	1	P	4	3	0.75	YYnY	5	1	0.51	yes
Fraud	fraud	1	K	39	21	0.54	nnnYYYnYYY	5	3	0.5	yes
Socialist / Socialism	socialism|socialist	1	KP	3	2	0.67	YYn	5	0	0.48	no
Manufacturing	manufacturing	1	KP	21	12	0.57	nYnnYnYYnY	5	2	0.48	yes
Tax 7+ times	tax#7	7	P	1	1	1	Y	5	2	0.46	no
Afford / Affordable / Affordability	afford|affordability|affordable	1	K	38	19	0.5	nnYnYYYYnY	5	3	0.46	yes
Ass	ass	1	P	10	4	0.4	nYnnnYYnnY	5	0	0.45	yes
Election	election	1	K	29	13	0.45	nYYnnnYnYY	5	1	0.42	yes
Tariff	tariff	1	K	30	11	0.37	nYnnnnYYnY	5	1	0.41	no
American Dream	american dream	1	KP	29	17	0.59	nnYnnnnYnn	5	0	0.38	yes
2028 / Campaign	2028|campaign	1	KP	17	6	0.35	YnnnnYnnnY	5	3	0.35	yes
America / American 20+ times	america|american#20	20	P	1	0	0	n	5	5	0.34	yes
Iran 3+ times	iran#3	3	P	4	1	0.25	Ynnn	5	3	0.33	no
Wife	wife	1	P	1	0	0	n	5	2	0.33	yes
Working Class / Middle Class	middle class|working class	1	KP	14	3	0.21	nnnnnYnnnY	5	1	0.31	yes
ID / Identification	id|identification	1	K	11	2	0.18	nnnYnnnnnY	5	1	0.27	no
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	1	KP	32	7	0.22	nnYnnnYnnn	5	1	0.26	no
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	1	KP	44	8	0.18	YnnnnnnYnY	5	3	0.25	no
Made in America / American Made	american made|made in america	1	K	7	1	0.14	nnYnnnn	5	0	0.25	no
Free Speech / Freedom of Speech	free speech|freedom of speech	1	KP	4	0	0	nnnn	5	0	0.21	no
America First	america first	1	KP	37	5	0.14	nnnnnnnYnn	5	0	0.18	no
Radical Left	radical left	1	K	25	0	0	nnnnnnnnnn	5	0	0.13	no