# JD Vance (jd-vance) · rally 2026-10-26 · 25 words · K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26OCT26B · as_of 2026-10-27T07:24:22Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-10-26 · tn/th last 5 transcripts of any kind 2025-10-01..2026-09-03 (under 2 rally transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26OCT26B ({word} = w of K rows): If JD Vance says {word} as part of Midterm Rally in Belgrade, Montana originally scheduled for October 26, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
2028 / Campaign	2028|campaign	32	18	0.56	nYYYYYYYYY	5	3	0.72	hist	no
Biden	biden	73	50	0.68	YYYYYnYYnn	5	4	0.67	hist	yes
Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime	tax on overtime|tax on tip	20	16	0.8	nYYYYYnYnY	5	0	0.66	hist	yes
Illegal Alien	illegal alien	49	32	0.65	YYYYYnnYYn	5	3	0.61	hist	no
Nuclear	nuclear	16	10	0.62	YnnnYYYYYY	5	4	0.6	hist	no
Social Security	social security	9	6	0.67	nYYYYnYnY	5	2	0.59	hist	yes
Afford / Affordable / Affordability	afford|affordability|affordable	53	29	0.55	YnnYnYYnYY	5	3	0.58	hist	no
Fraud	fraud	51	30	0.59	YnYYnYYYnY	5	3	0.57	hist	yes
Drill / Drilling	drill|drilling	1	1	1	Y	5	0	0.56	hist	yes
Border	border	21	11	0.52	nnnYYnYYnY	5	2	0.54	hist	yes
Economy / Economic	economic|economy	18	8	0.44	nYYYYYnnnn	5	4	0.47	hist	no
Healthcare	healthcare	42	19	0.45	nYYnnnnYnn	5	3	0.44	hist	no
Working Class / Middle Class	middle class|working class	27	9	0.33	YYYYnnYnnn	5	1	0.44	hist	yes
Inflation	inflation	28	17	0.61	nnYYYnYnnn	5	2	0.43	hist	yes
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	36	15	0.42	nnnnnYnnYY	5	3	0.38	hist	yes
American Dream	american dream	40	20	0.5	nnYnnnYnnn	5	0	0.33	hist	yes
Manufacture / Manufacturing	manufacture|manufacturing	8	2	0.25	nnYnnYnn	5	2	0.31	hist	no
China / Chinese	china|chinese	26	11	0.42	nnnnnnnYnn	5	2	0.29	hist	no
Tariff	tariff	40	12	0.3	nnnnnnYnnn	5	1	0.27	hist	no
Radical Left	radical left	36	3	0.08	nnYYYnnnnn	5	0	0.27	hist	no
Small Business	small business	11	3	0.27	nYnYnnnnnn	5	1	0.24	hist	no
America First	america first	52	7	0.13	nnnnYnnnnn	5	0	0.22	hist	yes
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	60	10	0.17	nnnnnnYnnn	5	3	0.18	hist	no
Made in America / American Made	american made|made in america	17	1	0.06	nnnnnnnnnn	5	0	0.12	hist	no
Farm / Farmer	farm|farmer	0	0			5	0	0.44	prior	yes