# JD Vance (jd-vance) · keynote 2026-05-28 · 46 words · K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26MAY28 · P p:what-will-jd-vance-say-during-air-force-academy-address · as_of 2026-10-24T13:34:49Z
# scope K named; P named · n/y settled before 2026-05-28 · tn/th last 3 transcripts of any kind 2025-10-01..2026-05-19 (under 2 keynote transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26MAY28 ({word} = w of K rows): If JD Vance says {word} as part of Commencement Address at the U.S. Air Force Academy , then the market resolves to Yes.
# rules P p:what-will-jd-vance-say-during-air-force-academy-address (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if JD Vance says the listed term during events at the Air Force Academy scheduled for May 28, 2026.
# rows 1-36 of 46 by p · more: offset=36 (limit=0 lists all)
w	key	thr	v	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Democrat	democrat	1	K	26	20	0.77	nnYnYYYYYY	3	3	0.64	hist	no
Biden	biden	1	K	37	28	0.76	nYYYYYYYYn	3	3	0.62	hist	no
Trump (5+ times)	trump#5	5	K	2	2	1	YY	3	1	0.58	hist	no
Invested / Investment	invested|investment	1	K	5	4	0.8	YnYYY	3	1	0.58	hist	no
Fraud	fraud	1	P	21	14	0.67	nnYYYYnYYY	3	2	0.57	hist	no
Russia	russia	1	P	0	0			3	1	0.57	hist	no
China / Chinese	china|chinese	1	K	6	4	0.67	YYnnYY	3	1	0.5	hist	no
Iraq	iraq	1	P	1	1	1	Y	3	0	0.48	hist	yes
Recruit / Recruitment	recruit|recruitment	1	P	1	1	1	Y	3	0	0.48	hist	yes
President / Trump 10+ times	president|trump#10	10	P	0	0			3	3	0.48	hist	yes
Iran / Iranian	iran|iranian	1	K	4	2	0.5	nYYn	3	2	0.45	hist	yes
Nuclear	nuclear	1	KP	11	5	0.45	nnYYYYnnnY	3	2	0.45	hist	yes
Manufacturing	manufacturing	1	K	16	9	0.56	nYYnYnYnnY	3	1	0.44	hist	no
Midnight Hammer	midnight hammer	1	P	3	1	0.33	nYn	3	0	0.39	hist	yes
Woke / DEI	dei|woke	1	K	3	1	0.33	Ynn	3	0	0.38	hist	yes
Drone	drone	1	K	0	0			3	1	0.37	hist	no
Hormuz	hormuz	1	P	7	2	0.29	nnnYnYn	3	0	0.36	hist	no
Hottest	hottest	1	P	1	0	0	n	3	0	0.35	hist	no
America 20+ times	america#20	20	P	0	0			3	0	0.35	hist	no
Ass	ass	1	P	5	1	0.2	nYnnn	3	0	0.32	hist	yes
Department of War	department of war	1	K	2	0	0	nn	3	0	0.32	hist	no
Hegseth	hegseth	1	K	2	0	0	nn	3	0	0.32	hist	no
Venezuela	venezuela	1	K	2	0	0	nn	3	1	0.31	hist	no
Fake News	fake new	1	P	10	2	0.2	nnnYnYnnnn	3	0	0.3	hist	no
National Security	national security	1	K	5	1	0.2	Ynnnn	3	1	0.3	hist	no
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	1	KP	28	4	0.14	nnnnnnnnYn	3	2	0.21	hist	yes
America First	america first	1	K	21	3	0.14	nnnnnnnnnn	3	0	0.18	hist	no
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	1	P	12	0	0	nnnnnnnnnn	3	0	0.17	hist	no
Epic Fury	epic fury	1	P	8	0	0	nnnnnnnn	3	0	0.17	hist	yes
250	250	1	K	0	0			3	0	0.41	prior	yes
Aeronautical / Aeronautics	aeronautic|aeronautical	1	P	0	0			3	0	0.41	prior	no
BCT / Basic Combat Training	basic combat training|bct	1	P	0	0			3	0	0.41	prior	no
Commitment	commitment	1	P	0	0			3	1	0.41	prior	no
Dance / Dancing	dance|dancing	1	P	0	0			3	0	0.41	prior	no
F-47	f 47	1	K	0	0			3	0	0.41	prior	yes
Godspeed	godspeed	1	P	0	0			3	0	0.41	prior	no