# JD Vance (jd-vance) · interview 2026-06-16 · 17 words · K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26JUN16B · as_of 2026-10-24T21:11:44Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-06-16 · tn/th last 3 transcripts of any kind 2025-10-01..2026-05-19 (under 2 interview transcripts) · same on every row: v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26JUN16B ({word} = w of K rows): If JD Vance says {word} as part of Fox News: Fox & Friends , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	res
Deal / Settle	deal|settle	1	4	3	0.75	YnYY	3	1	0.57	yes
Biden	biden	1	41	29	0.71	YYYYYnnYnn	3	3	0.56	no
Democrat	democrat	1	30	21	0.7	YYYYYYnYnn	3	3	0.54	no
Pope	pope	1	2	1	0.5	Yn	3	1	0.52	no
Iran / Iranian	iran|iranian	1	7	5	0.71	nYYnYYY	3	2	0.5	yes
American Dream	american dream	1	23	16	0.7	YnYYYnnnYn	3	0	0.5	no
250	250	1	2	1	0.5	Yn	3	0	0.5	no
Fraud	fraud	1	25	15	0.6	YYnYYYnYnn	3	2	0.49	no
Election	election	1	16	8	0.5	YnYnYnYnYn	3	0	0.48	no
Trump (3+ times)	trump#3	3	4	3	0.75	YYnY	3	1	0.46	yes
2028 / Campaign	2028|campaign	1	4	2	0.5	YYnn	3	1	0.45	no
Terrorist / Terrorism	terrorism|terrorist	1	23	10	0.43	nnnYnYnnYY	3	2	0.43	yes
Afford / Affordable / Affordability	afford|affordability|affordable	1	23	11	0.48	YYYYYYnnnn	3	2	0.36	no
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	1	20	4	0.2	nnnnnnnnYY	3	0	0.23	yes
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	1	31	5	0.16	nnnnnYnYnn	3	2	0.19	no
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	1	9	2	0.22	nnnYnnnnY	3	1	0.18	no
America First	america first	1	25	4	0.16	nnnnnnnnnY	3	0	0.13	no