# JD Vance (jd-vance) · interview 2026-06-15 · 17 words · K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26JUN15 · as_of 2026-10-24T13:34:49Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-06-15 · tn/th last 3 transcripts of any kind 2025-10-01..2026-05-19 (under 2 interview transcripts) · same on every row: v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26JUN15 ({word} = w of K rows): If JD Vance says {word} as part of Fox News: Hannity , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	res
Biden	biden	1	40	29	0.72	YYYYYYnnYn	3	3	0.56	no
Democrat	democrat	1	29	21	0.72	nYYYYYYnYn	3	3	0.54	no
Pope	pope	1	1	1	1	Y	3	1	0.52	no
250	250	1	1	1	1	Y	3	0	0.5	no
American Dream	american dream	1	22	16	0.73	YYnYYYnnnY	3	0	0.5	no
Iran / Iranian	iran|iranian	1	6	4	0.67	nYYnYY	3	2	0.5	yes
Fraud	fraud	1	24	15	0.62	YYYnYYYnYn	3	2	0.49	no
Election	election	1	15	8	0.53	nYnYnYnYnY	3	0	0.48	no
Trump (3+ times)	trump#3	3	3	2	0.67	YYn	3	1	0.46	yes
2028 / Campaign	2028|campaign	1	3	2	0.67	YYn	3	1	0.45	no
Terrorist / Terrorism	terrorism|terrorist	1	22	9	0.41	nnnnYnYnnY	3	2	0.43	yes
Afford / Affordable / Affordability	afford|affordability|affordable	1	22	11	0.5	nYYYYYYnnn	3	2	0.36	no
Usha	usha	1	9	4	0.44	nnYYYYnnn	3	1	0.34	yes
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	1	19	3	0.16	nnnnnnnnnY	3	0	0.23	yes
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	1	30	5	0.17	nnnnnnYnYn	3	2	0.19	no
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	1	8	1	0.12	nnnYnnnn	3	1	0.18	yes
America First	america first	1	24	3	0.12	nnnnnnnnnn	3	0	0.13	yes