# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_month by 2026-06-30 (settled) · 24 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAYNICKNAME-26JUL01 · as_of 2026-10-24T23:23:02Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-06-30 · tn/th last 8 transcripts of any kind 2026-06-24..2026-06-29 · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAYNICKNAME-26JUL01 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump before Jul 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
# coverage 30 of 40 known appearances transcribed; the post archive does not cover the window (as of 2026-10-21T04:05:49Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	cnt	cnt_all	res	agree	lower_bound
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	104	71	0.68	YnYYYnnnYY	8	3	0.78	27	28	yes	1	
Whack Job / Wack Job	wack job|whack job	2	2	1	YY	8	0	0.67	1	1	yes	1	
Newscum	newscum	64	37	0.58	YYnnnnYnnn	8	0	0.67	1	1	yes	1	
Sleazebag	sleazebag	4	3	0.75	YYYn	8	0	0.63	0	0	yes		1
Crooked Hillary	crooked hillary	7	5	0.71	YYnYYYn	8	0	0.62	1	1	yes	1	
Con Job	con job	5	3	0.6	nYYYn	8	0	0.62	3	3	yes	1	
Crying Chuck / Cryin Chuck	cryin chuck|crying chuck	4	2	0.5	YnnY	8	0	0.6	0	0	yes		1
Witch Hunt	witch hunt	5	3	0.6	nYYYn	8	0	0.59	1	1	yes	1	
Marjorie Traitor Greene	marjorie traitor greene	6	3	0.5	nYYYnn	8	0	0.59	0	0	no		1
Grossly Incompetent	grossly incompetent	1	1	1	Y	8	2	0.58	3	3	yes	1	
Crooked Joe	crooked joe	2	1	0.5	nY	8	0	0.58	10	11	yes	1	
Low IQ	low iq	12	4	0.33	nnnYnYYnnn	8	0	0.53	2	2	yes	1	
Slopadopolous / Slopadopolus	slopadopolous|slopadopolus	0	0			8	0	0.5	0	0	yes		1
Tampon Tim	tampon tim	3	0	0	nnn	8	0	0.48	0	1	no		1
Pocahontas	pocahonta	25	13	0.52	nnnnnYnnnn	8	0	0.47	1	1	yes	1	
Too Late	too late	27	8	0.3	nnnYYnnYnn	8	1	0.46	8	9	yes	1	
Comrade Kamala	comrade kamala	15	3	0.2	Ynnnnnnnnn	8	0	0.43	0	0	no		1
Biden Crime Family	biden crime family	4	0	0	nnnn	8	0	0.43	0	0	no		1
Crazy Bernie	crazy bernie	4	0	0	nnnn	8	0	0.43	0	0	no		1
Fat Slob	fat slob	4	0	0	nnnn	8	0	0.43	0	0	yes		1
Little Communist	little communist	4	0	0	nnnn	8	0	0.43	0	0	no		1
Piggy	piggy	4	0	0	nnnn	8	0	0.43	0	0	yes		1
Low Energy	low energy	6	0	0	nnnnnn	8	0	0.4	0	0	no		1
Rocket Man	rocket man	5	0	0	nnnnn	8	0	0.4	0	0	no		1