# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_month by 2026-01-01 (settled) · 23 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAYNICKNAME-26JAN01 · as_of 2026-10-24T20:31:37Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-01-01 · tn/th blank: no transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAYNICKNAME-26JAN01 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump before Jan 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
# coverage no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window (as of 2026-10-20T23:46:28Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	cnt	cnt_all	res	lower_bound
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	30	18	0.6	YYYnYYYnnn	0.79	hist	0	0	yes	1
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	35	22	0.63	YnnYYnYYYn	0.68	hist	0	0	yes	1
Crooked Hillary	crooked hillary	3	2	0.67	YYn	0.61	hist	0	0	yes	1
Newscum	newscum	26	11	0.42	nYYnYnnnnn	0.54	hist	0	0	yes	1
Comrade Kamala	comrade kamala	11	3	0.27	YnnnYnnnnn	0.49	hist	0	0	no	1
Pocahontas	pocahonta	20	12	0.6	YYYnYnnnnn	0.46	hist	0	0	yes	1
Too Late	too late	7	2	0.29	nYnnYnn	0.45	hist	0	0	yes	1
Whack Job / Wack Job	wack job|whack job	0	0			0.45	hist	0	0	yes	1
Con Job	con job	1	0	0	n	0.44	hist	0	0	yes	1
Green New Scam	green new scam	8	4	0.5	nYnYYnYn	0.43	hist	0	0	yes	1
Low IQ	low iq	5	1	0.2	Ynnnn	0.38	hist	0	0	yes	1
Marjorie Traitor Greene	marjorie traitor greene	1	0	0	n	0.5	prior	0	0	yes	1
Rocket Man	rocket man	1	0	0	n	0.5	prior	0	0	no	1
Biden Crime Family	biden crime family	0	0			0.5	prior	0	0	no	1
Crazy Bernie	crazy bernie	0	0			0.5	prior	0	0	no	1
Crying Chuck / Cryin Chuck	cryin chuck|crying chuck	0	0			0.5	prior	0	0	yes	1
Fake Tapper	fake tapper	0	0			0.5	prior	0	0	no	1
Little Communist	little communist	0	0			0.5	prior	0	0	no	1
Low Energy	low energy	0	0			0.5	prior	0	0	no	1
Piggy	piggy	0	0			0.5	prior	0	0	no	1
Sleazebag	sleazebag	0	0			0.5	prior	0	0	yes	1
Slopadopolous	slopadopolous	0	0			0.5	prior	0	0	yes	1
Zohran The Moron / Moron Zohran	moron zohran|zohran the moron	0	0			0.5	prior	0	0	no	1