# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_month by 2026-04-01 (settled) · 24 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAYNICKNAME-26APR01 · as_of 2026-10-25T02:37:01Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-04-01 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAYNICKNAME-26APR01 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump before Apr 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
# coverage 1 of 1 known appearance transcribed (as of 2026-10-20T23:46:29Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	cnt	cnt_all	res	agree	lower_bound
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	66	50	0.76	nYYYYYYYYY	1	1	0.74	hist	1	1	yes	1	
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	55	38	0.69	YYYYYYYYYn	1	0	0.68	hist	0	0	yes		1
Slopadopolous	slopadopolous	3	1	0.33	Ynn	1	0	0.59	hist	0	0	no		1
Whack Job / Wack Job	wack job|whack job	1	1	1	Y	1	0	0.58	hist	0	0	yes		1
Crooked Hillary	crooked hillary	6	4	0.67	YYnYYn	1	0	0.58	hist	0	0	yes		1
Sleazebag	sleazebag	3	2	0.67	YYn	1	0	0.58	hist	0	0	yes		1
Crying Chuck / Cryin Chuck	cryin chuck|crying chuck	3	1	0.33	Ynn	1	0	0.58	hist	0	0	yes		1
Witch Hunt	witch hunt	4	2	0.5	nYYn	1	0	0.55	hist	0	0	yes		1
Marjorie Traitor Greene	marjorie traitor greene	5	2	0.4	nYYnn	1	0	0.55	hist	0	0	yes		1
Con Job	con job	4	2	0.5	nYYn	1	0	0.54	hist	0	0	yes		1
Pocahontas	pocahonta	24	13	0.54	YnnnnnYnnn	1	0	0.53	hist	0	0	no		1
Green New Scam	green new scam	18	12	0.67	nYYYYYYYnn	1	1	0.51	hist	2	2	yes	1	
Newscum	newscum	47	28	0.6	YYYnnYYYYn	1	0	0.51	hist	0	0	yes		1
Too Late	too late	22	6	0.27	nYnnnnnYYn	1	1	0.51	hist	1	1	yes	1	
Low IQ	low iq	9	3	0.33	YnnnnYnYn	1	1	0.48	hist	1	1	yes	1	
Comrade Kamala	comrade kamala	14	3	0.21	nYnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.41	hist	0	0	no		1
Low Energy	low energy	4	0	0	nnnn	1	0	0.41	hist	0	0	no		1
Biden Crime Family	biden crime family	3	0	0	nnn	1	0	0.41	hist	0	0	no		1
Crazy Bernie	crazy bernie	3	0	0	nnn	1	0	0.41	hist	0	0	no		1
Fat Slob	fat slob	3	0	0	nnn	1	0	0.41	hist	0	0	no		1
Little Communist	little communist	3	0	0	nnn	1	0	0.41	hist	0	0	no		1
Piggy	piggy	3	0	0	nnn	1	0	0.41	hist	0	0	no		1
Rocket Man	rocket man	4	0	0	nnnn	1	0	0.36	hist	0	0	no		1
Tampon Tim	tampon tim	2	0	0	nn	1	0	0.51	prior	0	0	no		1