# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_month by 2026-08-31 (settled) · 31 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26SEP01 · as_of 2026-10-24T06:37:07Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-08-31 · tn/th last 8 transcripts of any kind 2026-08-19..2026-08-28 · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26SEP01 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump before Sep 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
# coverage 25 of 36 known appearances transcribed (as of 2026-10-22T14:43:14Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
# text pending: 2 appearances since 2026-08-30 without a transcript yet (tn/th leave them out); newest donald-trump:2026-08-31:remarks: White House video captions, then the official transcript (American Presidency Project) (late)
# rows 1-29 of 31 by p · more: offset=29 (limit=0 lists all)
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	cnt	cnt_all	res	agree	lower_bound
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	159	94	0.59	Ynnnnnnnnn	8	0	0.8	5	5	yes	1	
Genius	genius	20	15	0.75	YYYYnYYYYn	8	2	0.73	9	12	yes	1	
Trump Derangement Syndrome	trump derangement syndrome	18	13	0.72	nYnYYYYYYn	8	0	0.7	2	6	yes	1	
Predict / Prediction	predict|prediction	42	29	0.69	YYYYYnYYYY	8	1	0.7	2	4	yes	1	
Gulf of America	gulf of america	30	19	0.63	YYYYnYnYYn	8	1	0.7	1	2	yes	1	
Palestine / Palestinian	palestine|palestinian	9	6	0.67	YYnnYnYYY	8	0	0.69	5	10	yes	1	
Who are you with / Where are you from	where are you from|who are you with	40	26	0.65	YYYYYYYnYn	8	0	0.67	8	8	yes	1	
DEI / Woke	dei|woke	19	9	0.47	nnnYnYYnYY	8	1	0.65	16	18	yes	1	
Golden Age	golden age	25	14	0.56	YYYnYYnYnY	8	3	0.64	28	29	yes	1	
American Dream	american dream	26	15	0.58	nYYYYYYYYn	8	2	0.63	8	9	yes	1	
Cognitive	cognitive	7	3	0.43	nnYnYnY	8	0	0.61	1	2	yes	1	
Pelosi	pelosi	12	9	0.75	YYYYYYnnYn	8	0	0.6	2	2	yes	1	
Space Force	space force	28	15	0.54	YYnnYYnnnY	8	3	0.6	14	15	yes	1	
Newscum	newscum	76	42	0.55	nYYnYnnnnn	8	0	0.59	0	0	no		1
Moon	moon	25	10	0.4	YYnnnnnnnY	8	1	0.59	14	18	yes	1	
UFC	ufc	43	19	0.44	YYnnnnYYnY	8	0	0.58	0	4	yes		1
Fat shot / Ozempic	fat shot|ozempic	27	11	0.41	YYnnYnYnYY	8	0	0.57	1	2	yes	1	
Kamala	kamala	42	21	0.5	nnYYYYYnYY	8	0	0.56	4	5	yes	1	
Greenland	greenland	52	21	0.4	YYnnYnYnYn	8	0	0.56	0	1	no		1
Filibuster	filibuster	14	7	0.5	nYYnnYnnnn	8	0	0.52	2	3	yes	1	
Third Term	third term	13	4	0.31	nnYnnnnYnY	8	0	0.47	0	1	no		1
Autism	autism	33	16	0.48	nnYnnnnnnY	8	1	0.46	11	20	yes	1	
Nine War / Ninth War	nine war|ninth war	6	2	0.33	YYnnnn	8	0	0.44	0	0	no		1
Zohran / Mamdani	mamdani|zohran	31	9	0.29	nnnYnnYYnn	8	0	0.43	2	5	yes	1	
Peace in the Middle East	peace in the middle east	30	9	0.3	nnnnYnnnnn	8	0	0.42	0	2	no		1
Make Iran Great Again	make iran great again	6	1	0.17	nYnnnn	8	0	0.4	0	1	no		1
Knicks	knick	16	2	0.12	nnnnnnnnnn	8	0	0.39	0	0	no		1
Antifa	antifa	18	2	0.11	nnnnnnnnnn	8	0	0.37	2	3	yes	1	
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	483	52	0.11	nnYnnnnnnn	8	1	0.36	12	27	yes	1