# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_month by 2026-09-30 (settled) · 28 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26OCT01 · as_of 2026-10-24T04:43:34Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-09-30 · tn/th last 8 transcripts of any kind 2026-09-21..2026-09-23 · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26OCT01 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump before Oct 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
# coverage 30 of 42 known appearances transcribed (as of 2026-10-23T00:24:27Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
# text pending: 6 appearances since 2026-09-24 without a transcript yet (tn/th leave them out); newest donald-trump:2026-09-30:remarks-announcement: White House video captions, then the official transcript (American Presidency Project) (pending; eta 2026-11-12T04:59:00Z)
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	cnt	cnt_all	res	agree	lower_bound
Genius	genius	22	16	0.73	YYnYYYYnYn	8	0	0.75	4	4	yes	1	
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	170	99	0.58	nnnYYYnnYn	8	0	0.73	4	5	yes	1	
Kamala	kamala	50	26	0.52	YYYYnnYYYn	8	0	0.73	5	5	yes	1	
Predict / Prediction	predict|prediction	43	30	0.7	YYYYnYYYYY	8	0	0.71	1	2	yes	1	
Golden Age	golden age	28	15	0.54	nYYnYYnYnn	8	1	0.68	5	5	yes	1	
Deal / Settle / Settled	deal|settle|settled	0	0			8	6	0.68	94	128	yes	1	
Gulf of America	gulf of america	32	20	0.62	YYnYnYYnYn	8	0	0.67	6	7	yes	1	
Cognitive	cognitive	8	4	0.5	nnYnYnYY	8	0	0.66	0	0	no		1
Who are you with / Where are you from	where are you from|who are you with	45	29	0.64	YYnYYnYYnn	8	0	0.65	4	4	yes	1	
American Dream	american dream	29	17	0.59	YYYYYYYnYn	8	0	0.65	3	3	yes	1	
Space Force	space force	32	18	0.56	YYnnnYYYYn	8	0	0.65	2	5	yes	1	
UFC	ufc	44	20	0.45	YnnnnYYnYY	8	0	0.61	4	4	yes	1	
Pelosi	pelosi	14	11	0.79	YYYYnnYnYY	8	0	0.6	2	2	yes	1	
Fat shot / Ozempic	fat shot|ozempic	28	12	0.43	YnnYnYnYYY	8	0	0.56	1	1	yes	1	
Moon	moon	30	12	0.4	nnnnYYYnnn	8	0	0.56	0	1	yes		1
Filibuster	filibuster	16	8	0.5	YnnYnnnnYn	8	0	0.54	1	1	yes	1	
Autism	autism	36	17	0.47	nnnnnnYYnn	8	0	0.53	0	0	yes		1
Greenland	greenland	59	21	0.36	nYnnnnnnnn	8	3	0.53	23	43	yes	1	
Peptide	peptide	1	0	0	n	8	0	0.5	0	0	no		1
Newscum	newscum	77	42	0.55	YYnYnnnnnn	8	0	0.49	0	0	no		1
Third Term	third term	18	5	0.28	nnYnYnnnYn	8	0	0.48	0	0	yes		1
Zohran / Mamdani	mamdani|zohran	39	11	0.28	nYnnnnnnnY	8	0	0.43	1	3	yes	1	
Make Iran Great Again	make iran great again	11	1	0.09	Ynnnnnnnnn	8	0	0.37	0	0	no		1
Epstein	epstein	136	30	0.22	nnnnnnnnnn	8	0	0.33	0	0	no		1
Antifa	antifa	24	4	0.17	nnnnnYnnnY	8	1	0.32	1	1	yes	1	
Peace in the Middle East	peace in the middle east	39	9	0.23	nnnnnnnnnn	8	0	0.26	0	0	no		1
Ceasefire	ceasefire	111	16	0.14	nnnnnnnYYn	8	1	0.16	2	2	yes	1	
UFO / UAP	uap|ufo	30	3	0.1	nnnnnnnnnn	8	0	0.15	0	0	no		1