# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_month by 2026-02-28 (settled) · 48 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26MAR01 · P p:what-will-trump-say-in-february · as_of 2026-10-26T20:39:46Z
# scope K named; P named · n/y settled before 2026-02-28 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1 · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26MAR01 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump before Mar 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
# rules P p:what-will-trump-say-in-february (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between February 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
# coverage no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window (as of 2026-10-20T23:46:29Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
# rows 1-29 of 48 by p · more: offset=29 (limit=0 lists all)
w	key	v	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	cnt	cnt_all	res	lower_bound
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	K	51	36	0.71	YYYYYYYnnY	1	1	0.79	hist	0	0	yes	1
Pelosi	pelosi	K	6	6	1	YYYYYY	1	0	0.72	hist	0	0	yes	1
Trump Derangement Syndrome	trump derangement syndrome	K	7	5	0.71	nnYYYYY	1	0	0.72	hist	0	0	yes	1
Gulf of America	gulf of america	KP	8	5	0.62	YYYYnYnn	1	1	0.68	hist	0	0	yes	1
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	K	42	26	0.62	nYYnnYYYYn	1	0	0.67	hist	0	0	yes	1
TrumpRX / TrumpRX.gov	trumprx|trumprxgov	K	5	4	0.8	YYYnY	1	0	0.64	hist	0	0	yes	1
Turning Point	turning point	K	6	4	0.67	YYYYnn	1	0	0.64	hist	0	0	no	1
Transgender	transgender	K	69	36	0.52	YYYYYnYYnn	1	1	0.63	hist	0	0	yes	1
Newscum	newscum	K	38	21	0.55	YYYYYYnYYn	1	0	0.6	hist	0	0	yes	1
Predict / Prediction	predict|prediction	K	27	16	0.59	nnnYYYYYnn	1	0	0.59	hist	0	0	yes	1
Windmill	windmill	K	15	8	0.53	nYYnnnYYYn	1	1	0.57	hist	0	0	yes	1
Moscow	moscow	K	8	4	0.5	nYYnYnnY	1	0	0.57	hist	0	0	no	1
UFC	ufc	K	13	6	0.46	nnnYYYYnnn	1	0	0.57	hist	0	0	no	1
Filibuster	filibuster	P	1	1	1	Y	1	0	0.55	hist	0	0	yes	1
Bitcoin	bitcoin	P	13	3	0.23	nnnYnnnnYY	1	0	0.55	hist	0	0	no	1
Tango	tango	P	2	1	0.5	Yn	1	0	0.53	hist	0	0	yes	1
Autism	autism	K	10	4	0.4	YYnnnnYnYn	1	0	0.53	hist	0	0	yes	1
DEI / Woke	dei|woke	K	7	3	0.43	YYnnnnY	1	1	0.52	hist	0	0	yes	1
Greenland	greenland	K	39	15	0.38	nYnnnnnnnn	1	1	0.51	hist	0	0	yes	1
Magnet	magnet	P	1	0	0	n	1	0	0.49	hist	0	0	yes	1
Skedaddle	skedaddle	P	4	2	0.5	YnYn	1	0	0.47	hist	0	0	no	1
Kamikaze	kamikaze	P	1	0	0	n	1	0	0.46	hist	0	0	no	1
Knucklehead / Numskull / Numbskull	knucklehead|numbskull|numskull	P	1	0	0	n	1	0	0.44	hist	0	0	no	1
Nine Wars / Ninth War	nine war|ninth war	P	0	0			1	0	0.44	hist	0	0	yes	1
Migrant Crime	migrant crime	P	1	0	0	n	1	0	0.42	hist	0	0	no	1
Third Term	third term	K	5	1	0.2	Ynnnn	1	0	0.41	hist	0	0	yes	1
Stimulus	stimulus	K	5	0	0	nnnnn	1	0	0.39	hist	0	0	no	1
Nine War	nine war	K	4	0	0	nnnn	1	0	0.36	hist	0	0	no	1
Antifa	antifa	P	14	2	0.14	nnnnnnnnnn	1	1	0.34	hist	0	0	no	1