# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_month by 2026-06-30 (settled) · 33 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26JUL01 · as_of 2026-10-24T08:07:31Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-06-30 · tn/th last 8 transcripts of any kind 2026-06-24..2026-06-29 · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26JUL01 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump after June 1st at 8:00am ET and before Jul 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
# coverage 30 of 40 known appearances transcribed (as of 2026-10-21T04:05:48Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	cnt	cnt_all	res	agree	lower_bound
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	104	71	0.68	YnYYYnnnYY	8	3	0.81	27	28	yes	1	
Genius	genius	16	12	0.75	nYYYYYYYnY	8	2	0.73	18	19	yes	1	
Gulf of America	gulf of america	26	16	0.62	YYnnYYYnYn	8	1	0.71	2	2	yes	1	
Trump Derangement Syndrome	trump derangement syndrome	14	10	0.71	YYYYnYnYYY	8	1	0.68	7	7	yes	1	
Predict / Prediction	predict|prediction	40	27	0.68	YYYYYYYnYY	8	0	0.67	1	2	yes	1	
Autism	autism	30	15	0.5	YYYnnYnnnn	8	0	0.66	0	0	no		1
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome	tds|trump derangement syndrome	41	26	0.63	YYYYYnYYYY	8	1	0.65	10	10	yes	1	
Newscum	newscum	64	37	0.58	YYnnnnYnnn	8	0	0.65	1	1	yes	1	
Nine War / Ninth War	nine war|ninth war	4	2	0.5	YYnn	8	0	0.64	0	0	no		1
Pelosi	pelosi	10	8	0.8	YYYYYYYYnn	8	0	0.63	1	2	yes	1	
Dead Country	dead country	12	5	0.42	YnnYnnnnYY	8	4	0.63	14	14	yes	1	
Space Force	space force	20	11	0.55	nnnnYYYYYn	8	1	0.61	12	12	yes	1	
Palestine / Palestinian	palestine|palestinian	7	4	0.57	YYnnYnY	8	1	0.59	4	4	yes	1	
Kimmel	kimmel	2	1	0.5	nY	8	0	0.59	0	0	no		1
DEI / Woke	dei|woke	17	7	0.41	YnnnnYnYYn	8	1	0.59	4	5	yes	1	
World Cup	world cup	43	17	0.4	nnnnnYnnnn	8	1	0.59	6	13	yes	1	
UFC	ufc	39	16	0.41	nnnYYnnnnY	8	0	0.57	10	17	yes	1	
Moon	moon	13	5	0.38	nYnYYnYnnn	8	0	0.56	4	5	yes	1	
Greenland	greenland	47	18	0.38	YnnnnYYnnn	8	0	0.55	2	5	yes	1	
Who are you with / Where are you from	where are you from|who are you with	29	17	0.59	nnYYnnnYYY	8	0	0.54	3	3	yes	1	
Golden Age	golden age	14	6	0.43	YYnnnnnnnY	8	2	0.52	9	10	yes	1	
UFO / UAP	uap|ufo	12	3	0.25	YnYnnnnnnn	8	0	0.51	0	0	no		1
Make Iran Great Again	make iran great again	4	1	0.25	nYnn	8	0	0.5	0	0	no		1
Cognitive	cognitive	5	1	0.2	nnYnn	8	0	0.5	2	3	yes	1	
Knicks	knick	13	1	0.08	Ynnnnnnnnn	8	0	0.5	4	13	yes	1	
Fat shot / Ozempic	fat shot|ozempic	25	9	0.36	nYYYnnYnYn	8	0	0.47	1	1	yes	1	
Goat	goat	3	1	0.33	nYn	8	0	0.43	0	0	no		1
Epstein	epstein	122	29	0.24	nnnnnnnYnn	8	0	0.43	3	3	yes	1	
American Dream	american dream	17	7	0.41	nnnnnnnYYn	8	1	0.42	1	4	yes	1	
Moscow	moscow	12	4	0.33	YnYnnYnnnn	8	0	0.42	0	0	no		1
Epstein Island	epstein island	3	0	0	nnn	8	0	0.42	0	0	no		1
Third Term	third term	11	2	0.18	nnnnYnnnnn	8	0	0.38	1	1	yes	1	
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	414	41	0.1	nnnnnnnnnn	8	0	0.34	0	0	no		1