# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_month by 2026-09-30 (settled) · 39 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAYCOUNTRY-26OCT01 · as_of 2026-10-24T11:48:27Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-09-30 · tn/th last 8 transcripts of any kind 2026-09-21..2026-09-23 · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAYCOUNTRY-26OCT01 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump before Oct 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
# coverage 30 of 42 known appearances transcribed (as of 2026-10-23T00:24:27Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
# text pending: 6 appearances since 2026-09-24 without a transcript yet (tn/th leave them out); newest donald-trump:2026-09-30:remarks-announcement: White House video captions, then the official transcript (American Presidency Project) (pending; eta 2026-11-12T04:59:00Z)
# rows 1-27 of 39 by p · more: offset=27 (limit=0 lists all)
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	cnt	cnt_all	res	agree	lower_bound
Canada / Canadian	canada|canadian	6	4	0.67	YYnYYn	8	1	0.61	hist	75	88	yes	1	
Turkey / Turkish	turkey|turkish	0	0			8	1	0.61	hist	1	6	yes	1	
Congo / Congolese	congo|congolese	0	0			8	1	0.6	hist	2	2	yes	1	
India / Indian	india|indian	0	0			8	1	0.59	hist	1	3	yes	1	
Mexico / Mexican	mexican|mexico	2	2	1	YY	8	1	0.58	hist	20	31	yes	1	
Qatar / Qatari	qatar|qatari	1	1	1	Y	8	1	0.58	hist	2	4	yes	1	
Bahrain / Bahraini	bahrain|bahraini	0	0			8	1	0.58	hist	1	3	yes	1	
Poland / Polish	poland|polish	1	1	1	Y	8	0	0.57	hist	3	3	yes	1	
North Korea / North Korean	north korea|north korean	1	1	1	Y	8	0	0.56	hist	0	0	no		1
UAE / United Arab Emirates	uae|united arab emirate	1	1	1	Y	8	0	0.56	hist	1	7	yes	1	
Egypt / Egyptian	egypt|egyptian	0	0			8	1	0.56	hist	1	1	yes	1	
Hungary / Hungarian	hungarian|hungary	0	0			8	0	0.56	hist	0	0	no		1
South Korea / South Korean	south korea|south korean	0	0			8	0	0.56	hist	3	3	yes	1	
Denmark / Danish	danish|denmark	1	1	1	Y	8	2	0.55	hist	10	17	yes	1	
Germany / German	german|germany	0	0			8	0	0.55	hist	6	8	yes	1	
Norway / Norwegian	norway|norwegian	0	0			8	0	0.55	hist	3	3	yes	1	
Saudi Arabia / Saudi Arabian	saudi arabia|saudi arabian	0	0			8	1	0.55	hist	6	15	yes	1	
Somalia / Somali	somali|somalia	2	0	0	nn	8	0	0.54	hist	0	1	no		1
Australia / Australian	australia|australian	1	0	0	n	8	0	0.54	hist	2	2	yes	1	
Italy / Italian	italian|italy	1	0	0	n	8	0	0.54	hist	2	2	yes	1	
Panama / Panamanian	panama|panamanian	0	0			8	0	0.54	hist	1	1	yes	1	
South Africa / South African	south africa|south african	0	0			8	0	0.54	hist	0	1	no		1
Sudan / Sudanese	sudan|sudanese	0	0			8	0	0.54	hist	0	0	no		1
Switzerland / Swiss	swiss|switzerland	0	0			8	0	0.53	hist	2	2	yes	1	
United Kingdom / British	british|united kingdom	0	0			8	2	0.53	hist	5	8	yes	1	
Belgium / Belgian	belgian|belgium	0	0			8	0	0.52	hist	0	0	no		1
Colombia / Colombian	colombia|colombian	0	0			8	0	0.52	hist	1	1	yes	1