# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_week by 2026-09-27 (settled) · 37 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26SEP28 · as_of 2026-10-25T08:33:25Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-09-27 · tn/th last 8 transcripts of any kind 2026-09-21..2026-09-23 · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26SEP28 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump after September 21, 2026 at 9:00am ET and before Sep 28, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
# coverage 8 of 11 known appearances transcribed (as of 2026-10-23T00:24:24Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
# text pending: 2 appearances since 2026-09-24 without a transcript yet (tn/th leave them out); newest donald-trump:2026-09-24:remarks-evening-xi-jinping: White House video captions, then the official transcript (American Presidency Project) (pending; eta 2026-11-06T04:59:00Z)
# rows 1-27 of 37 by p · more: offset=27 (limit=0 lists all)
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	cnt	cnt_all	res	agree	lower_bound
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	115	85	0.74	YYYYYYYYnn	8	0	0.86	1	1	yes	1	
Socialist / Socialism	socialism|socialist	11	9	0.82	nYYYYYYYYY	8	1	0.84	1	1	yes	1	
Golf / Golfer / Golfing	golf|golfer|golfing	18	13	0.72	nYYYYYYYYY	8	0	0.78	0	0	yes		1
Transgender	transgender	229	127	0.55	YYYnnYYYnn	8	1	0.78	3	3	yes	1	
Kamala	kamala	49	26	0.53	nYYYYnnYYY	8	0	0.77	0	0	no		1
Landslide	landslide	60	40	0.67	nnnnYYYnYY	8	2	0.74	6	6	yes	1	
Ukraine	ukraine	98	52	0.53	YYYnnYYnnn	8	1	0.73	9	14	yes	1	
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	169	99	0.59	nnnnYYYnnY	8	0	0.7	0	0	no		1
Who are you with / Where are you from	where are you from|who are you with	44	29	0.66	YYYnYYnYYn	8	0	0.69	0	0	no		1
Melania	melania	82	51	0.62	YYYYYnnnYY	8	1	0.69	1	1	yes	1	
Canada / Canadian	canada|canadian	5	3	0.6	YYnYn	8	1	0.68	7	7	yes	1	
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome	tds|trump derangement syndrome	55	35	0.64	YYnYYnnYnY	8	0	0.61	1	1	yes	1	
Rigged Election / Stolen Election	rigged election|stolen election	48	32	0.67	YYYYnnnnYn	8	0	0.6	1	1	yes	1	
Save America Act	save america act	56	29	0.52	nnYnYnYYYY	8	0	0.59	0	0	no		1
Voter ID	voter id	8	4	0.5	nYnYYnYn	8	0	0.59	0	0	no		1
Bibi / Netanyahu	bibi|netanyahu	68	30	0.44	YnYnYnnnYn	8	0	0.58	2	2	yes	1	
Moon	moon	29	12	0.41	nnnnnYYYnn	8	0	0.58	0	0	no		1
Dividend / Stimulus	dividend|stimulus	18	7	0.39	YYYnYnnnYY	8	0	0.57	1	1	yes	1	
Blockade	blockade	19	8	0.42	nYnYnYnnnY	8	0	0.52	0	0	yes		1
Autopen / Auto Pen	auto pen|autopen	62	35	0.56	nnYnYnnnnY	8	0	0.47	0	0	yes		1
Cuba / Cuban	cuba|cuban	28	13	0.46	nnnYYnYnnY	8	1	0.47	4	4	yes	1	
Nobel	nobel	39	5	0.13	YYnYnnnnnn	8	0	0.37	0	0	no		1
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	500	54	0.11	nnnnnnnnnn	8	0	0.37	0	0	no		1
Third Term	third term	17	5	0.29	nnnYnYnnnY	8	0	0.35	0	0	no		1
Zohran / Mamdani	mamdani|zohran	38	10	0.26	YnYnnnnnnn	8	0	0.35	1	2	yes	1	
Stupid Question	stupid question	30	8	0.27	nYYnnnnYYn	8	0	0.33	0	0	no		1
Antifa	antifa	23	3	0.13	nnnnnnYnnn	8	1	0.33	1	1	yes	1